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RIDING-BY-RIDING REPORT (EDITOR'S NOTE: This is the first in a special Times series of articles on the elec. tion campaign in Ontario.. The series is being written by Gwyn Kinsey of the Queen's Park bureau of The Times. The ar- ticles are based on a riding-by- riding survey and_ interviews conducted throughout the prov- ince.) If-Ontario voters went to the polls this week, the Progressive Conservatives would be returned with a comfortable majority. And unless something happens in the next few weeks to stir a widespread urge for change in the electorate, that is what will happen on October 17. This is the inescapable con- clusion from 'a, riding-by-riding Survey of the province, based on the judgments of impartial local observers, personal interviews, and study of voting patterns in key localities during postwar elections, If there is a seething spirit of revolt against the Robarts. gov- ernment, as the Liberals and New Democrats claim, it is not evident across most of the prov- ince. It is, indeed, the quietest revolt in history -- so quiet that this could be one of the duller election campaigns, despite the frantic efforls of Liberal leader Robert Nixoén and: NDP leader Donald MacDonald. During the past week or so, Mr. MacDonald has not been repeating his slogan of '67 seats in '67." It's just as well. If the New Democrats win even half that number, they will achieve a modern miracle. The cold fact seems to be that the NDP will be doing extremely well -- and against all the odds -- to replace the Liberals as the official opposition in the Legis- lature. The Liberals seem to be in better shape under Mr. Nixon than they were under his predecessor Andrew Thompson, but they are still in disarray in too many constituencies to threaten the entrenched Tories. Nevertheless the Liberals seem kkely to retain their place as the second party, simply be- cause they have more strength in more ridings than do the NDP. HARSH ASSESSMENT In assessing the ridings, this survey took a deliberately harsh view of the Conservative chances and a correspondingly lenient view of Liberal and NDP chances. On that basis, the number of "safe" Conservative seats -- ridings where only an earth- quake of protest would cause a change -- is set at 45, with nine for the Liberals and six for the NDP, leaving 57 "toss-up"' seats, Among the 57 toss-ups, how. ever, are 28 ridings where the Tories have a decided edge. The Liberals have 11 in this cate- gory and the NDP three. Some of the remainder are real three- way contests, but several of them are two-way fights with one of the parties having little more than nuisance value. It would be surprising, then, if the Progressive Conservatives won fewer than 73 seats, the Liberals more than 30 and the NDP more than 20. There are 117 seasts at stake, up from 108 as a result of re- distribution. This means that a Ree a 7 eta icin ih ae Cte e bare majority wil] be 60, taking into account the naming of a Speaker, SOME PUZZLES The redistribution has created some political puzzles in Metro Toronto, and the Sudbury, Ot- tawa and Waterloo areas. New seats and the changed boun- daries of old seats, along with the population shifts that made the changes necessary, make accurate assessment a 'virtual impossibility in most cases. The new Ottawa Centre con- stituency, for example, is known to have fairly solid Liberal and Coiservative blocs, but the New Democrats have an active well- known candidate there. The Liberals probably have an edge at the moment, judged on the basis of past performance there, while the NDP has run a very poor third in all the Ottawa seats. But an NDP surge is not impossible in Centre, and this could put the new riding up for grabs. There fs a somewhat similar situation in Toronto High Park, In 1963 the sitting member Alf Cowling (PC) squeezed past Liberal Paul Staniszewski by just 891 votes but was more than 4,000 ahead of the NDP candidate, This time it's a three- way fight with the loquacious IF REVOLT, QUIETEST IN HISTORY l Tories In Lead, Times Survey Of Province Shows Dr. Morton Shulman represent. ing the DP, The word from High Park {s that Cowling could run third, with Staniszewski winrting it for the Liberals. Shulman's strength seems to be a question-mark. He has had an enormous amount of publicity, bnt his image as the crusading coroner has been sad- ly tarnished in the past few months, largely as a result of his chronic inability to keep quiet, Cynics in press gallery are piugging for Shulman to win High Park simply for the fun of watching Donald MacDonald trying to keep him in line, the Legislature's i Home Newspaper Of Oshawa, Whitby, Bowman- ville, Ajax, Pickering and 'neighboring centres in Ont- ario and Durham Counties. Weather Report Cooler air moving in from northwest will cover Ontario by Thursday evening. Low to-« night, 58; high tomorrow, 72, Che Oshawa Times OSHAWA, ONTARIO, WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 1967 Authorized as Second Class Mail Post Office Department 10¢ Single Copy Ottawa and for payment of Postage in Cash 5Se Per Week Home Delivered Beulah Hits Texas Coast BROWNSVILLE, Tex. (AP)|muscular storms ever recorded, --Hurricane Beulah battered/and the weather bureau pred-| Brownsville with winds surging|icted Beulah would still pack a) above 100 miles an hour today| punch of better than 100 m.p.h. | and, slightly weakened by the|when the eye finally crashed| VOL. 26--NO, 218 THIRTY-FOUR PAGES Bvyelections Seen N ov.6 OTTAWA (CP)--Three feder-jfory as the federal Bonavista-|by more th 0.9 al byelections will be held Mon- Twillingate constituency. H ¢! 1985 when the Wat cance ele day, Nov. 6, informed sources|resigned his federal seat only'tion was held. |say. last year. Conservatives have been | Ridings concerned are Colch-| . Jasper-Edson was left vacantiextremely cool to the overtures ester-Hants in Nova Scotia.jmonths ago by the resignation\of E. C. Manning, Social Credit where Conservative s kipperiof Conservative Dr. Hugh Hor-|premier of Alberta, for a Con+ Robert Stanfield will seek elec-|ner, a surgeon, who has entered| servative-Social Credit alliance. tion to the Commons; Bonavis-|provincial politics in ae) The Conservatives now hold 373 A, onslaught, hurled her remain-| ashore. | ing strength toward Corpus! "She's just about the biggest,| Christi. | nastiest storm I've ever seen," More than 30,000 Texans had| said the veteran pilot of a navy| fled far inland or taken refuge) hurricane hunter after flying) @ in hometown shelters. Their/ through the eye. | flight was orderly, | Ham radio operators reported! Brt in neighboring Matamo-| the tiny town of Valle Hermoso,| ros, Mex., officials reported) Mexico, 15 miles south of| fear and confusion as citizens) Brownsville, was almost wiped) scrambled for shelter. out as the hurricane winds) Beulah had approached the| swept through. Many residents | Texas-Mexico coast with winds|had been evacuated before the) of 160 m.p.h. whirlink around| storm hit. | her centre. Her slam at the Rio| No deaths or injuries were Grande Valley and her charge| reported immediately. upcoast cut her big punch to} Earlier, Beulah had been 150 m.p.h., even though the eye,| blamed for 24 deaths--23 in the the focal point of her power,| eastern Caribbean and Mexico's remained over water. Yucatan Peninsula and one But as she aimed her dead|when a 15-year-old girl was calm eye at Corpus Christi she|}swept from her surfboard by remained one of the most'rolling waves at Freeport, Tex. UAW Executive Accuses GM Of Stealing Market DETROIT (AP)--A top, "Our production scheduled) "WHERE ARE THE REST OF THE CANDLES ?° at two ends of the cake at Tuesday. At left is his wife the 22 candles on his huge on ve. a party for him in Ottawa (CP Wirephoto) birthday cake marking his 72nd birthday Monday were John Diefenbaker had trouble blowing out all the candles in one puff because (CP)--| t Makers' Wax 1.75 care' wax with a beeswax ssly formulated to be used on finest furniture and leather non, Lavender or Sandalwood NINE yea ta-Twillingate in Newfoundland|Dr. Horner had held the seat\15 of the 17 federal seats in and Jasper-Edson in Alberta. since 1958, increasing his plur-| Alberta. Social Credit has the The last may be the most\ality over the Liberat candidatel other two. interesting of the three. All par-' s to the Conservatives now that PM, Stanfield Lunch, John Diefenbaker has been deposed as leader. Nomination day in Colches- ter-Hants will be Monday, Oct. whether to field a candidate/¢"t amity, Prime Minister/date to Mr. Stanfield "although against Mr, Stanfield. The New Pearson and Conservative lead-jI don't know what they are Democratic Party has already, er Robert Stanfield lunched and/doing locally," in Colchester. opted eut. aoatee ay two hours/Hants. jeaday, a or nthe forthcoming! wr. Stanfield, who has bees conferring with MPs and party i is unchanged since before cial candidate, a ginger Liberal] Talking to reporters, Mr. Union| today is unchang: group in Colchester-Hants|Stanfield conceded a date for might do so. + ogo mage in Colchester- new aatoaal aie Colchester-Hants was held by|Hants, his Nova Scotia home 'Conservative Cyril Ken ned y| constituency, had been. dis. of the Conservative party. GM is "piling on as much|replace the three-year contract ket io F : : ; 'ag achive de. Mur- 5 f " : "3 '4 UNITED NATIONS A Big Four discussion on the ister _Mauirce Couve de Mur I : psa altel Pacey Be) which expired Sept. 6. The UN General Assembly's Middle East is a_possibility| ville is due tonight. CLYDEBANK, Scotland (AP) field an opening to the Com.|that in due course," he said. /duties associated with myself," cial vesifant and tiead of the Contracts at GM and Chrys-|new president called on the 122| with the arrival in New York of| The Soviet Union, however. | _The Queen cracked a mag-|mons, which will reconvene] The prime minister said the|Mr. Stanfield said, adding that u "atl GM department. The|!¢t, Corp. also expired Sept. 6.) member states to embark today |foreign ministers from the|turned down a French proposal! nym of champagne on the|Sept. 25. |Liberal party at the nationaljhe would have more to say nion's P . |but the union has continued) on a study aimed at finding a|Soviet Union, France, Britain/last spring, for a Big Four sum-/praceful bows of Britain's great} Nomination day in Bonavis-|!€vel isn't doing anything about about it soon, UAW workers in support a : | Ri nn mem pee Pep vee Petal new sot guaranteed annual income, a! Corneliu Manescu, foreign|George Brown arrives today|Thant suggested itgerry that! with the name millions were| Normally it would be the pre- Woodcock said GM's production|share of corporate profits, a|minister of Romania, is the|and U.S. State Secretary Dean|the Security Council ho 'a PY|waiting to hear--her own,| vious day but Oct. 9 is Thanks- NEWS HIGHLIGHTS of 1968 model cars "is greater|"substantial" pay incre ase,|first Communist to be assembly | Rusk is expected Sunday night. vate BSL tol nau al Sag Queen Elizabeth Il. | giving, a statutory holiday. now than at any time in other|equal pay for Canadian work-| president. He was elected Tues- be ig ag ae gi lg pr ena on peace|, An emotional roar erupted , Migs eg foundiand ridieg mes . : : model starts." ers, boosts in fringe benefits|day in a secret ballot with 122)¥ . a, ae og Fev poay cides from 30,000 throats as thejleft vacant Monday by the a York and French Foreign Min-'issues within UN competence, Cunarder glided down the slip-|departure from the Commons Tiger Cats Sign Ron Brewer HAMILTON (CP) -- Hamilton Tiger-Cats, leading in ties will be anxious to see how 23. The Liberal association in i & e N. FEAR GINGER GROUP } and a ' h ee ames It is being suggested by some/ byelection to give Mr. Stanfield Middle zs East Solution Qu n Liberal sources here that if the/@ chance to get a Commons , ge for the last twe 7 ; United Auto Workers » N L official says General Motors is|the selection of a strike tar- ed ew iner "stealing as much of the mar-|get," a GM spokesman said. | 1m ssem ket" as it can while Ford Motor; The UAW has named Ford as |from 1953 until last week when| cussed. "We discussed @ number of Corn word chat down become |WOrking without a contract. |""asting solution" of the Middle|and the United States. | mit on the Middle Kast. new ocean liner today and|ta'Twillingate, and Jasper-Ed.| | Woodcock said he toured 13)and improved working condi-| votes for him to one for Tanza- nor way and set up a huge wave/and cabinet of Transport Minis Israeli Gunners Sink the Eastern Football Conference, have signed Ron Brewer; 1, eS eres loyal the Prairies will remain the riding has not yet decided} OTTAWA (CP)--With appar-/putting up any opposing candi- Liberals do not put up an offi-/seat. said he had a talk before Co. is stopped by a UAW strike.|the strike target in a bid to After Self he resigned to give Mr. Stan- "But you'll be hearing about | things and he may be taking on Soa, UAW ourhne Ws curcon Labor demands include aj East problem. British Foreign Secretary}; UN _ Secretary-gegeral | jaunched it into the River Clyde|son will be Tuesday, Oct? 10, |:mmmnm cities with GM_ plants last|tions. Both union and Ford offi-jnian Ambassador John W., S. 0 ort across the river. |\ter Pickersgill. The riding has week, meeting local union offi-|cials have indicated the strike | Malecela. a | cials, would last a month or longer. The assembly's prime duty, "May God bless her and all been Liberal since Newfound a veteran Canadian linebacker who had announced his ~iean said Manescu, 51, is "to concen- |who sail in her," said the ry oe tetas ig ' '"! retirement earlier this year. Brewer {is expected to play 1 50 a trate its efforts upon a thorough . Queen. pen iV since Toss texersgii Nas! in Saturday's home game against Montreal Alouettes. Ed- 'osol tin hee : « The name of the ship had : ave monton Eskimos, Brewer's 1966 employers, gave Ticats . Grants Available Now ss the Middle age E tian Patrol Boats been kept secret until now. She| GRANGER MAY STAND permission to negotiate with him last week. In return, problem that cou ! } rosol ti 2 95 lasting solution in keeping with jhad been known only as Q4. It is believed that Charles) Hamilton sent the Eskies Mike Law, a young defensive rosol tin' .... * the vital interests of the peoples}. TEL AVIV (AP)--Israeli tank|ing that it opened fire without Granger, former Liberal MP} halfback. for Grand Falls-White Bay-Lab- : : e tador and a former aide to Mr-| Social Credit MP Seeks Liberal Berth Pickersgill will seek his party's nomination in Bonavista-Twil- OTTAWA (CP) -- H. A. Olson, MP for Medicine Hat, For Slow Growth Areas FORT WILLIAM (CP)--On- ot remover ... spray on, let of that region." gunners sank three Egyptian|provocation on Egyptian posi-| off. The dispute was handed to/patrol boats carrying about 45 tions across the 100-yard wide| SIU Calls 3 [the assembly by the emergency|soldiers today after Egypticanal. He said no Egyptian) Mr. Robarts used his visit to|session that met after the six-|twice tried to ferry them down|boats were on the waterway. tario will give incentive grants of up to $500,000 to new or expanding companies in slow- growth areas, Premier John Robarts announced Tuesday. The plan will go into effect immediately, he told a political rally. Later, at a press confer-| . ence, he said: "We have the machinery to handle it tomor- row." The Ontario Development Corporation, which will admin- ister the plan, has $7,000,000 and the statutory authority to go ahead with it, the premier told reporters. Qualifying companies would receive loans interest free for) five years. After each of the free-interest years, one-tenth of the debt would be cancelled. Kenora to announce the biggest|day June war between Israel wild rice.crop in the area's his-|and the Arabs but could agree A 5 «|on no solutions. The Middle tory, adding the 1,000 Indians in|. «+ dilemma headed the list of the area could expect to make i 5 $1,000,000 09, this year's crop. [oe ene cathe Proposed agen He said the government had| Other key issues were the issioned Lakehead Unl-|problem of substituting UN for versity to study ways of stabi-| South African control in South- lizing wild rice yields which up pill fs a Vatainist 'coins | to now have varied from season'|the means of achieving disarm- to season. ament. jthe blocked Suez Canal, an Israeli military spokesman said. dawn and again about 244 hours later, sources said. They were seen struggling in the water and several casualties were reported. : An Egyptian official in Cairo denied the Israeli claim, charg- Israeli observers in Tel Aviv jaccused Egypt of attempting to jereate tension to coincide with About 15 Egyptians jumped|the opening sessions of the Gen- from each craft into the canal/eral Assembly in New York. after tanks fired on them at| A communique issued in)5,400-member Seafarers' Inter- Cairo accused the Israelis of| national Union, Tuesday called opening fire on Suez City at the upon Labor Minister Nicholson canal's southern end and on the|to arrange "without delay" a meeting of the union and repre- strike-bound adjacent Port Taufiq. | McLaughlin, As a result, the communique)sentatives of 32 said, two houses and a power|Great Lakes shipping compa- station were damaged. 'nies. MONTREAL (CP) -- Leonard president of the | lingate. For Talks |, Mr. Granger, 55, now is min-| ister of Labrador affairs in the Newfoundland government and, his. provincial riding--Gander--} covers some of the same terri- STIFF PENALTY FOR REFUSAL UK. Shows Drivers Means Business MOST COSTLY CAMPAIGN SAIGON |today heavily LONDON (CP)--The dos and drive or be in charge of a Mrs. Castle predicted 150 to 3. If a driver is involved in an heavy shelling near U.S. Marine Toll Heavy | (AP)--U.S. Mil il | bombed North 2 Vietnamese artillery and mor-|~ ee In THE tars that wounded more than|- 100 U.S. marines in 24 hours of} 3 called demilitarized zone. Military headquarters repit- planes : ali the 0- has quit the Social Credit Party and has written Prime Minister Pearson seeking a berth with the Liberals. He told a press conference today that "for all practical pur poses" the national Social Credit party is dead. | Great Demand Forecast For Papers MONTREAL (CP) -- Despite vast changes in the com- munications media of the near future, there will still be a great demand for the daily newspaper, a meeting of the Newspaper Advertising Managers' Association of Eastern Canada, was told Tuesday. TIMES Today .. City Dairy Sold -- P. 17 Portrait, From Post --- P. 5 Brooklin In Game -- P. 14 At the end of the sixth year, , | i Pp i vided the company has don'ts of Britain's tough, new motor vehicle when more than 240 deaths and 1,750 accidents accident, ) ; ed one marine was ga an UE ing Broom remained in the slow-growth) drinking-driving law were 80 milligrams of alcohol are could be prevented every year If the test is positive, the firing from the big oedle Ajax News--5, 6, 11 peels 208 Bet Peano te aanvuaced Tuestey sigh and shown in 100 millilitres of his if Britons respond to the new driver is arrested and taken to emplacements on sandbagge 3 City News--17 has synthetic bristles, @ plastic factorily, the balance of the Transport Minister Barbara blood. law. Statistics show that liquor a police station. fortresses near the zone divid-| CT .. . .. 80 it's washable... 'ccm- , Castie warned she means busi- plays a part in nearly 30,000 There the driver is asked to ing the Vietnams. Clonifed-- ' t dries quickly, retains its. shave, loan would be forgiven. An indication of the toughness submit to a blood or urine test The focus of the Communist om from O'Cedar with brist "« s which we ness with the compulsory alco- oe aa road accidents a year, includ- ) f r nly. collect even the nest dust sit cueeaeae ate thie' aluw: hol Restate wise cane Ei plies Ss wibaghiraieg aby ing 13,000 fatal and serious mis- sue mesbites alcohol in the atta, pr ac oe ae awe' aie Vy" base, s stern and T et the point across to os shige ; haps. ood. Failure to pass either tions of Con Thien and Gio Linh inancial-- ue ph eT, caine aa te pock- Britain's 13,500,000 motorists, ae ign rd ie eg as The act gives police three cir- test could mean drinking just below the demilitarized = Obituaries--30 = ets of slow growth which exist Mrs. Castle plans a £350,000 yd by pokes: ae -- sy cumstances under which they charges resulting in suspension zone. _ Sporte--=14, 15 3 a- Lon" ; 1 " ($1,050,000) publicity program if the tests were made an can enforce a roadside test: of licence for a year, fines up Associated Press correspond-| 2 Pere . in in other places. * eS Catal proved positive--as well as an If a dri it 7 to £150 ($300) : ; ent Edwin Q. White reported; Weks Television --33 Earlier, the premier visited --the most costly road safety dditional £50 ($150) fine. 1. If a driver commits a mov: 50 ( or imprisonment > n &. ie | " is the National 31 Dp Dryden and Kenora advertising campaign ever bein Bir ($150) fine. ing traffic offence such as for four months. that shelling was so intense! Here 1ona' Theatres-- with "magno-static'" ih Dryden, he promised the organized. At a press conference Tues- crossing the white line or aa ae aaa Rin ag either that road peel J _ se news . .. Confidentially Weather--2 a-static' action . : : 03 ; it: ¥ . i du - The Road Safety Act will go day night, Mrs. Castle called exceeding the speed limit; e breath or blood test, he posts was suspended and a " Whitby News--5, 6, 12 Satie Rane case men province would try to work out eicct t : 2. If police suspect from his faces the same penalties as speaking... he wrist. Resists mattin and d over and over again, 89 is 'J PHONE 725.7373 an arrangement with the feder- al government to finance an airport for the town. into effect Oct. 9 and from that date it will be an offence for the new legislation "pretty tough" and said enforced to the letter, it will be behavior that a driver has been drinking alcohol; ; drunken drivers plus the addi- tional fine, anyone to drive, attempt to copters. supplies were forced to move = up on medical evacuation heli-| = Women's--18, 19, 20, 21 Cae mn b &.. 4