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Page THE HERALD OUTLOOK Saturday April 15 the HERALD Outlook Deficit tops the agenda OUTLOOK Is published each Saturday by the HILLS HERALD Home Newspaper of Halton Hills A Division of Canadian Newspapers Company Limited at Guelph Street Georgetown Ontario L7G SecondClassMall Registered Number 8772201 STAFF WRITERS Your Business Diane Thomson The looming federal budget Is focuBing peoples attention on economic matters to a degree not seen since the 198182 recession The finance minister will bring down his budget April 27 On the tip of every tongue is the deficit something few of us had thought much about until recently Suddenly the deficit is the most dreadful thing We worry about recession too remembering how bad things got for some people less than a decade ago While we worry the economy chugs merrily along Real estate prices have been booming in southern Ontario and on the West Coast and labor shortages are mounting in Ontario For most of us things have never been better If and when recession comes it may be anticlimactic provided it is not severe Meanwhile economic experts are grappling with a new and un familiar world trying to predict with tools that are woefully out dated what the future will bring Or are the tools outdated I NEW WAVE TEST DrEd is- one of the few who think they are Chief economist with PrudentialBache Securities in New York Dr has become a bit of a celebrity lately because of his Wave theory of economics Ac cording to the economist who at age 38 describes himself as a card- carrying member of the baby- boom generation the future will be much like the past only better Economywide recessions will be replaced by rolling recessions which hit one or two industries at a time He traces the change to the increasingly integrated global economy Global competitive forces will avert an inflationary boom no boom no bust Opposing Dr arejhose who hold more traditional economic theories Proponents of the Old Wave say the current business cycle is a textbook exam ple of the boombust phenomenon and recession is inevitable Over the past week or so Old Wave economists have moved out in front Inflation and interest rates have climbed relentlessly higher the US unemployment rate has hit its lowest point in years and the North American economy has kept right on growing The race is not over Dr Yardeni says He is open to the possibility that his New Wave theory will be disproved We arent going to die for the cause he says Even so he still believes the fiveyear outlook for the economy is bright But that doesnt mean we ex pect that the New Wave will work every single day of the next five years There can be nasty bumps along the happy trail to prosperi ty SAVINGS BOOM In a nutshell Dr Yardeni believes that as the postwar baby- generation ages we will save more and spend less The old boomandbust economy will give way to slow but steady growth While his forecast Is directed toward Americans it may be even more applicable to- Canadians Historically we are a cautious peo ple a nation of savers For this Finance Minister Michael Wilson should be grateful After all the Canadian people finance the federal budget deficit by buying Canada Saving Bonds treasury bills and longterm bonds Berrys World Environmental Protection Agency IMS NOV Inc OK lets find some mora every body likes and thinks Is but PUBLISHER David A Beattie EDITOR Brian MacLeod AD MANAGER Dan Taylor SNAFU by Bruce Beattie Brian MacLeod SPORTS WRITER Paul Svoboda ACCOUNTING June CLASSIFIED ADVERTISING Joan Mannall Its hard to say when the time machine was invented People first saw it in 1620 then 1585 Ottawas clamoring for a new sales tax Ottawa Vic Parsons Ottawas ardor for a new na tional sales tax is rising Unfortunately for Finance Minister Michael Wilson the ob ject of his affection is still a lovers fantasy Its likely this romantic drama will continue for a while yet When Wilson met with his provincial counterparts last week they gave every indication that they intend to play coy Wilsons colleagues left last Fri days meeting held after two years of talks among officials agreeing to consider his proposal for a joint federalprovincial tax that would apply to a wide range of goods and services Theres a broad spectrum of views among the provincial governments Albertas as it made clear in its recent election wants no part of a plan that would introduce a retail sales tax It is the only province that does not levy a sales tax Ontario on the other hand is wavering Provincial Treasurer Robert Nixon had said earlier than an expanded and revised sales tax would be of no benefit to Ontario But he seems to have discovered that the province could benefit to the tune of million What pro found philosophical changes are wrought by a little extra petty cash in the pockets Now Nixon will consult with his cabinet col- Quebecs Gerard wants more time MULRONEY JUMPS IN At first it appeared Wilson was carrying the load for salestax reform by himself He bad describ ed the existing federal manufacturers tax as a silent killer of Jobs But now Prime Minister Brian Mulroney seems to be putting em phasis on change During his participation in the throne speech debate last week Mulroney diverted briefly from his talk to plug salestax reform The important part of our pro gram is tax reform Mulroney asserted in a phrase that would have pleased but may have startl ed Wilson Over time the prime minister said the current tax has hampered our industries com petitiveness as they take on firms from around the world And it is unfair in its impact on con sumers And of course it will provide a secure and reliable source of revenues This last phrase coupled with the governments determination to reduce its deficit reveals one motive for the earnestly desired Increased competitiveness is one potential benefit But Wilson also has his heart clearly set on the windfall benefits for the treasury that could accrue with reform Where it has been tried a broadly based sales tax has apparently brought in unexpectedly large revenues- BIG SOURCE In recent years Ottawa has come to rely more and more on the sales tax as a significant portion of its income A decade ago the federal sales tax accounted for about 13 per cent of federal revenues In the fiscal year just completed it accounted for about 20 per cent the second- largest source after personal in come tax Wilson may have eroded the moneymaking capacity of a reformed tax with his promise to exempt groceries prescription drugs and schools and hospitals But he recently gained an unex pected ally who could help him escape that pledge Con sumers Association of Canada has suggested the government tax everything at a low rate Tax credits could he used to help return some money to those less well off supporters of this notion argue Wilson says Ottawa is prepared to go it alone with salestax reform if provinces wont join the pro cess He wants a new syBtem in place by the beginning of 1991 This urge to proceed has receiv ed mixed reaction Big business wants Wilson to- go ahead with ADVERTISING SALES Craig Teeter Sharon Hollingsworth PRODUCTION DEPARTMENT Dave Hastings Supt Annie Gilson Wilson CIRCULATION DEPARTMENT Marie PRESSROOM FOREMAN Brian PRESS ASSISTANT Lee Bittner Book Review Canadians are still fascinated by WW I By STEPHEN J HARRIS Seventy years after the event Canadians are still fascinated by the First World War At least that is the conclusion to be drawn from the appearance of so many books on the subject in the past few years Why this is so is not entirely clear In the academic world of course the conflict has significance as a formative na tional experience that not only hastened Canadas transformation from colony to nation and broaden ed her industrial base but also worsened tensions between English- and Frenchspeaking communities However is the First World War really our popular counterpart to the American or Civil War as the con scious stuff of which the nation was made So why the fascination Perhaps because the Canadian Corps was the finest army this country has ever put in the field Perhaps becauseof personalities such as Sam Hughes and Billy Bishop Perhaps because even as wars go was particularly horrific It saw the widespread use of poison gas and the first bombing of cities More poignantly and powerfully it is also remembered as a conflict in which tens of thousands were killed and wounded in single days and hundreds of thousands in drawnout campaigns that achiev ed no palpable success and as a war in which soldiers lived in con ditions better suited to the slugs rats and lice with whom they shared their trenches It is the stark horror of trench warfare of human remains protruding grotes quely from parapets or wounded men drowning in sludge that stands out and perhaps our fascination reflects awe at the fact that these things were actually en dured If the visual image of the Great War has the most impact its place in our national experience needs broader understanding What bet ter combination than a profusely il lustrated book Marching to Ar mageddon Canadians and the Great War 191418 Lester and Orpens 320pages by two of Canadas most prolific historians Desmond Morton and Granatstein The photographs paintings and posters selected are wellchosen and have been handsomely reproduced by the printers APPROPRIATE KICKS As for the text the authors have made good use of the latest research to evaluate not only Canadas military contribution but also what took place at home Along with politics and patronage including appropriate kicks at Sam Hughes they examine the organization of war industries antiwar and anticonscription sen timents Quebec and rural Canada as a whole and the rising influence of women Dr Stephen Harris an historian with the Directorate of History National Defence Head quarters Ottawa and author of Canadian Brass Making a Professional Army University of Toronto Press