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THE HERALD Wednesday May 8 1891 Page It Economist properly explains what is happening Business Analyst Thomson Newsservice The slow days of summer are approaching How will the economy look come fall Will it resemble an L sliding along the bottom the way it is now Or will the recovery take the form of a U a slow subdued turn Or as re cent housebuying would suggest a V a sudden rebound Or gasp will it take the shape of a W rising to a false start then slumping again It could par ticularly in Canada George Vasic director of economics at DRI Canada thinks the recovery will be under way by summer But uncertainty about Quebec the 1993 federal election and high interest rates could kill it within two years This recovery is safe until mid1933 he told a business outlook conference in Toronto After that the risks escalate enormously A new deal for Quebec and the other provinces or Quebecs Your Business would have resoun ding effects on the national economy Mr Vasic said Such political events are wild cards in any economic forecast Ed Yardeni chief economist at C J Lawrence in New York raised the question of the recoverys shape in a recent newsletter He favors the Liturn because it conveys a more sub dued lacklustre recovery than the letter V Being an Dr does not expect the dreaded W But a lacklustre recovery is bound to trigger several scares along the way The implications for interest rates are important A Ushaped recovery implies that interest rates will stay pretty much where they are until later this year In October or November Dr says US interest rates could fall another half a percen tage point Barring surprises Canadian interest rates would follow US rates down Corporate profits this year will be as subdued as the economy he predicts What if some other shape emerges What are the implica tions for interest rates A recovery would br ing a rise in interest rates some time during the year This would be followed by a substantial drop once it became apparent that the economy was headed down again UP OR DOWN A Vshpaed recovery implies that interest rates will climb steadily higher from where they are now A continuation of the Social programs threatened By TOM MITCHELL Media Relations Communications Division Statistics Canada Ottawa Working Canadians generate the public capital which serves as a bank account lo finance our social support net work When it comes to taking money from that account its our seniors who write by far the big gest cheque Our society over the near future will see rapid growth in the number of seniors Statistics Canada figures show Is our social support bank account go ing to wind up overdrawn The question cannot be answered with certainty A host of totally unpredictable factors play a part But a few trends that will affect the answer are known Members of our baby boomer population bulge begun in the years just after the Second World War will start reaching age about the year 2010 By the year 2030 for the first time in our history people age 65 and over are expected to outnumber those under The expectation is that more people will be dependent on SPECIAL GIFTS for SPECIAL MOMS A Message of Love in a Balloon Arrangement a up Also Available Selected Gifts Special Cards Paper Factory Call 8737403 Corner of Mountatnvlew Rd GEORGETOWN the working portion of our population in general terms those persons age to than at any time since the height of the baby boom in the mid1960s And the social support burden this time around is likely to be heavier Back the 1960s it was the youngsters who were drawing most heavily on the social bank account tapping it for famih benefits health care education In coming years its going to be the seniors Experience shows they will be more expensive Figures compiled by the Organization for Economic Co operation and Development an international organization grouping the western industrialized nations and Japan put social spending in Canada in 1980 at for everyone under age 1800 for those and 6500 for those and over So seniors drew down the social bank ac count at a rate more than time greater than the This proportionately higher cost for oldsters is expected to hold true in future years At the same time as the ranks of seniors will be increasing the proportion of those to the workers who have to generate most of the wealth needed to finance the social support system will be going down In 1987 there were people under age or over age for every 100 people in the prime worker category of to That per 100 is expected to rise to per workers by the year and to stay that high for another 20 years Social benefits have incresed at a steady pace in recent Canadian history To continue such in creases given demographic expectations pro bably would entail heavier tax burdens in the years to 2040 The choice that seems to be loom ing is one between incresing tax rates or modifying levels of social benefits A- ROYAL- DOULTON SPECIAL- EVENT Michael will personally sign any Royal Doulton collectable pur chased during this event Add to your Royal Doulton collection with a distinctive new FRAGRANCE figurine attired in a regal red dress Specially accompanied by a certificate of authenticity FRAGRANCE has been commissioned to mark Michael special events in 1991 and will never again available Also offered is an extensive selection of Royal Doulton figurines and collectable Michael will bo appearing on Thursday May from and OFF All Figurines For This Main St MILTON 8780050 current means interest rates will fall again soon They would continue to fall until somp sign of life returned to the economy Mind you economists are usually wrong according to an amusing story in the May issue of The Globe and Mails Report on Business Magazine But I think my old friend Ira Gluskin who is quoted in the story has it right think if you can find the right economist whos clearly way smarter than the rest hes maybe the only one who can ac tually explain whats going on Ira says The challenge is to avoid all the noise thats out there and find the right guy I figure the right guy is Ed Yardeni He may not be able to predict the future But at least he does a good job of explaining what is going on What happens if I die without a will First of all someone will have to apply to be appointed Administra tor of your estate The Administrator is person who will handle the work of your estate It is the Administrators job to deal with the assets pay the debti and distribute what is left The adult members of your family have in turn the right to apply to be appointed Administrator Your hus band or wife has the first right to ap ply then your children then your grandchildren the other descendants then your parents then grandparents then brothers and sisters and so on If your closest relatives are your children for example all of your children would have the right to be appointed as your administrators and they would have to work together If anyone turns down the right to apply the next nearest relative would be able to apply Sometimes there is disagreement as to who should be appointed and the court has to step in and resolve the conflict There is a law in Ontario called the Succession Law Reform Act which determines who will benefit from your estate if you die without a will Your spouse is entitled to the first of the estate Then if there are chil dren your spouse and children share what is left the proportions depend THE LAW AND YOU by Colin B QC on how many children or other issue there arc If there are no children or other issue your spouse gets every thing If you dont leave a spouse the estate goes first to your children or other issue then your brothers and sis ters if there are no parents and so on Obviously this can be quite a hardship in some cases if the children are quite young and the mother or fa ther really needs all the funds for day- today living Each childs share will be held in trust for him or her until he or she is 18 with the parent having to apply to the court anytime money is needed for such things as education or maintenance For more information about this topic contact the Law Societys Dial ALaw service and ask for tape entitled Why Make a Will In Metro Toronto and area call From area code outside Metro Toronto call tollfree 18003872920 From Ottawa and the local are call From area codes 519 705 call tollfree 18003872992 From area code 807 call tollfree Aesthetic Creations Custom Designs Replacement Vanity Mirrors on sale Replacement Windows Mirror Closet Doors Sliding Bifold Mirror Furniture Pedestal Decora Mirrors Bevelled Strip Walls ANTIRECESSION SALE MIRROR BACK SPLASHES Ideal For Under The Kitchen Cupboards Sq Ft FREE INHOME CONSULTATION ESTIMATES 9 Rd Georgetown 8731230