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the HERALD OUTLOOK is published each Saturday by the HILLS HERALD Home Newspaper or Halton Hills A Division of Canadian Newspapers Company Limited at Gueiph Street Georgetown Ontario L7G 2201 PUBLISHER David A Beattie EDITOR Brian MacLeod AD MANAGER Dan Taylor Second Class Mail Registered Number 0943 877 8822 STAFF WRITERS AlanMackie SPORTS EDITOR Colin Gibson ACCOUNTING Jennie Inga Shier CLASSIFIED ADVERTISING Joan Mannall ADVERTISING SALES Valois Craig Teeter Stacie Roberts PRODUCTION DEPARTMENT Dave Hastings Supl Annie Olsen Myles CIRCULATION Marie Shadbolt Canadian companies head for Moscow Diane Business watchers are impress ed by the boldness with which Canadian business people are em bracing the Soviet Union Although the people in Ottawa like to brag about the prime minister s venture to Moscow last fall the business community was there well before him Whether this rush of activity will redress the trade imbalance between the two countries we sell them much more than they sell us remains to be seen It was more than business as usual when Prime Minister Brian Mulroney accompanied at one point by a 140strong Canadian business delegation visited the Soviet Union External Affairs brags in a recent bulletin The department out that business as usual has meant bet ween billion and billion in Canadian exports to the Soviet Union mostly of grain The result has been a trade surplus that averaged billion a year in our favor INCONCLUSIVE All that changed in just six days in November External Affairs says But its evidence is less than persuasive The signing of 20 or so com mercfal agreements many of them joint ventures totalling billion in investment The ventures are in tourism agriculture oil and gas pulp and paper and automobile production The signing of the Canada USSR Foreign Investment Pro tection Agreement which like In vestment Canada here lets the Soviets review proposed Canadian investments there The agreement is expected to encourage Canadian companies to invest in the Soviet Union External Affairs says The signing of the Canada USSR Agreement on Province- Republic Co operation under which provincial governments can cooperate with the Soviet Union in economic scientific technical and cultural areas The plan to open a Canadian Consulate in Kiev to further trade The inaugural meeting of the Canada USSR Business Council with its mandate to encourage trade and investment between the two countries To say that the historic trading pattern between the two countries has all changed is an overstate ment Indeed it would seem that most of the companies that made the trek to Moscow were more in terested in selling goods and ser vices to the Soviets than buying things from them As long as this continues so will the trade im balance NOTOUKFAUIT This is not solely the fault of Canadian companies The Win Chester Group of Toronto for ex ample has been trying to buy things from the Soviet Union for three years now But indifference by factory managers and other of has resulted in delayed and cancelled shipments Berrys World J Let me put you on hold for a minute Eileen John is walking out on me SNAFU by Bruce Beattie 0 O o 0 Cv kSv Si 1 O O o 1 Business must invest in Eastern Europe Wow Look at her nose Predicting the future is like a billiards game Predicting the future is a lot like speculating about the outcome of a game of billiards played by all the denizens of a large poolroom It is easy enough to predict where balls will go when broken by an expert If the player has a single opponent equally expert it isn t difficult to predict the rough outline of the game they 11 play But if every person in the pool hall gets a shot at the table the colorblind and the uncoordmated as well as the expert and the ordered the results become im possible to predict No one foresaw the oil price shocks of 1973 yet they probably had a greater single negative pact on the economy of Ontario than any other event since the Se cond World War Assuming however that the world stumbles along with roughly the same success this coming decade as It did last decade what have we to look forward to in On tano On the positive side we have a robust economy and a skilled flex workforce Most new jobs are created in small business which means many people still feel op portunity beckons to become In dependent or to get rich or simply to be in charge of their own destiny Such people tend to adjust to bad economic times quite rapid ly and well In the Liberals under Premier David Peterson we also have an administration that does think about the future and in the fumbl way of government is attemp ting to direct and anticipate change RATIONALIZED Twothirds of all provincial ex penditures go on health and tion The Liberals want to see health care rationalized which essentially means trying to get its escalating costs under some kind of control through the rationing of health services in a rational manner In education they ve pumped money into the lower grades on the theory that if they can catch the child young enough they 11 produce the model Ontario citizen who won t do drugs or drop out of school but instead become a skilled upwardly mobile producer and consumer in an increas competitive world Doing what they can to prepare Ontario people industry and commerce for that world is also a Liberal goal They do face the pro that no one has yet come up with a formula for as the saying goes picking winners and losers industrially When governments dabble in the subsidy bus ness they usually back the wrong horse This is partly because of the political difficulty of saying yes to Company A wanting money that is calling it a winner while saying no to Company B calling it a loser Still government involvement isn t always counter productive For example the centres of ex that have been establish at universities where industry and academe can meet inter face is their term seem to be off to good starts Moreover the Liberals appear to have moved albeit tentatively on a couple of the major stumbling blocks to the province s economic future CONCERN They have expressed concern about and put some cash Into the province deteriorating in clogged roads full sewers and aging dwellings This is an area where decline is gradual and partly a consequence of success But failure to refurbish the infrastructure can have great long term negative effects on growth It looks too like the Liberals have taken the leash off Ontario Hydro and let it get on with the job of constructing enough new energy sources to give the province economy a secure relatively inex pensive source of supply in the next century once we get through some interim shortages In the next and final segment of this look into the future we 11 ex amine some clouds on the Liberals rainbow Vic Parsons Ottawa Bureau It time for Canadian businesses to take their marks for the race to new opportunities Eastern Europe While many hurdles remain there good reason to hope that the courage and determination recently displayed by the people of the Eastern Bloc will mean in creased world trade It would be unforgiveable if Canadians because of fear ig or apathy shied away from the possibilities Of course there is still a good deal of uncertainty about the future The inevitable economic dislocation caused by political change and outbursts of ethnic tensions apparent in some tries could get out of hand If so the dire possibility exists that old hardliners could regain con Instability for a time is guaranteed In Poland for exam pie an inexperienced government is tackling the job of turning around a ruined economy One hopes the Poles will give their new leaders the time they need Even worse hardships than exist now may have to be endured for some years This is precisely the time that Canadians should establish closer economic ties It should not be forgotten that the Soviet Union and the Eastern European countries that have undergone major political change in recent months have a population totalling million HUGE MARKET At some point should reform proceed and economies turn around these people will represent a huge new market for consumer goods By comparison the Umted States has million people and the nation European Communi ty has 350 million Naturally Eastern Bloc consumers won t have the cash of their American and Western European counter parts but they shouldn t be Conversely they can get some of that cash if we buy more of their products It was significant this week that Japanese Prime Minister Kaifu announced a billion aid package for Poland and Hungary The Japanese may well be the world cleverest entrepreneurs and without casting aspersions on their kindness there little doubt that the help establishes a strong presence in potential markets Some Canadian experts recognize the need to act soon Ber nard Wood head of the Canadian Institute for International Peace and Security urged action in a statement this week Economic operation and assistance are now a vital part of the West s effort to main tain the momentum of reform in Eastern Europe Wood said The timing is good now because it seems several Eastern Euro pean countries are eager to in crease economic ties