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www.oakvillebeaver.com The Oakville Beaver, Wednesday March 28, 2007 - 11 Pandemic flu inevitable says research scientist By Melanie Cummings OAKVILLE BEAVER STAFF An influenza pandemic is on its way. But the finite details of when and where are the vital unknowns, scientist Dr. Kirsty Duncan recently told about 120 people at the Canadian Club of Halton Peel. "For the first time in history we know a pandemic is coming and we have an opportunity to be prepared," said Duncan, who has spent 15 years researching the genetic causes of the devastating 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. Pandemics appear, on average, every 24 years and usually between 10 to 49 years. With that inevitability and an understanding of the historical impact, Duncan fears business and government have done little by way of planning. It's predicted that all countries will be affected by the next influenza pandemic and could result in anywhere from two million to 50 million deaths worldwide. We're already at the midpoint of a six-stage process to a fullblown pandemic, warned Duncan. It's a fact that is made all the more grave by Ontario's current nursing shortage and lack of adequate numbers of hospital beds, she said. Questions examining who gets the available stock of anti-viral drugs first, from healthcare and essential service workers right down to vaccines for the general public -- must be answered by officials, said Duncan It's predicted a flu pandemic will affect 15-35 per cent of workforces and that supply chains could falter or fail. Yet, only 15 per cent of U.S. businesses and four per cent of Canadian ones have a plan in place, she warned, and 40 countries, including Canada, have put together a plan, but just 30 have stockpiled drugs. Individuals need to plan, too, she advised, by storing water and food to last four to 12 weeks and keeping a supply of non-prescription and prescription drugs along with a one page health record listing allergies, medicine dosages and blood type for each member of the household. In the meantime, Duncan urges people to avoid crowds, keep hard surfaces clean and wash hands regularly and thoroughly throughout a day. Plans also need to be in place to handle the aftereffects of a pandemic, such as depression and financial loss, said Duncan. Locally, Halton completed a plan in 2004 and the Oakville Chamber of Commerce has a prototype for local businesses to design their plan. Both can be accessed online. "We need to work together on this," said Duncan. The last pandemic, known as the Hong Kong flu, occurred in 1968, and was declared the mildest one of three that took place in the 21st century because it claimed 33,800 lives. Avian flu or the A/H5N1 virus first surfaced in Canada in 1997. It kills all infected birds in less than 24 hours and as of Jan. 15 has killed half of the 267 humans who have been infected. So far 200 million birds have been culled worldwide. The virus has expanded infecting new animals including cats and tigers, and spread geographically into 32 new countries. Duncan released a book on the historical pandemic in 2003, called Hunting the 1918 Flu -- One Scientist's Search for a Killer Virus. It was written after she'd led an expedition to Norway in 1998, to uncover genetic material from the graves of Norwegian miners who died from the 1918 flu. Research continues on the samples taken at the time. SAVE UP TO FINAL DAYS! ON SELECTED MERCHANDISE DRAPERY & UPHOLSTERY BY THE METRE, DRAPERY PANELS, COMFORTER SETS & MORE! Sale in effect March 19-April 1, 2007. Most items available in most stores. No special orders. Not valid with any other discount offers. Insertion Date: Wed.,Mar.28/07 (or other) Insertion OPEN SUNDAYS 12-5 Size: 4 X 100 lines (or other) Please set all address bar info here in this space, in reverse, big bold OAKVILLE 844-7728 140 Rebecca&St. as space allows. Proof to Manager. Thanks. OFF OUR REGULAR PRICES MOVING SALE The Clock Is Ticking Until We Are Closed At This Location EVERYTHING IN OUR SHOWROOM IS ON SALE L ITEMS AL D TO PRICE AR CLE UP TO 20-70% OFF FINAL WEEKEND! CRYSTAL CHANDELIERS, TIFFANIES, CEILING FIXTURES, VANITY FIXTURES, BATHROOM ACCESSORIES, CEILING FANS, TABLE LAMPS, FLOOR LAMPS, PRINTS DOORS CLOSE AT THIS LOCATION APRIL 1, 2007 IN-STOCK ONLY! SALE EXPIRES APRIL 1ST @ 5:00 P.M. EXCLUDES RECESSED LIGHTING, DIMMERS, FLOOR HEATING (NU-HEAT), UNDER CABINET LIGHTING, LIGHT BULBS GERRIE ELECTRIC SHOWROOM POLICY If you are not 100% satisfied with your purchase, simply return it within 30 days of purchase for a full refund. . .W Q.E S OS CR E. AV . RD LL WA RN CO REN OLD ING S ST. LEH ART ST. D. RR GA AL AF TR 445 Inglehart Street, Oakville 905-845-2461 Hours: Mon., Tues., Wed. 9:30 a.m.-6:00 p.m., Thurs., 9:30 a.m.-9:00 p.m. Fri. 9:30-6:00 p.m., Sat. 9:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m., Sunday 12 Noon - 5:00 p.m *OPEN SUNDAYS*