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6- The Oakville Beaver Weekend, Saturday July 26, 2008 www.oakvillebeaver.com The Oakville Beaver 467 Speers Rd., Oakville Ont. L6K 3S4 (905) 845-3824 Fax: 337-5567 Classified Advertising: 905-632-4440 Circulation: 845-9742 The Oakville Beaver is a member of the Ontario Press Council. The council is located at 80 Gould St., Suite 206, Toronto, Ont., M5B 2M7. Phone (416) 340-1981. Advertising is accepted on the condition that, in the event of a typographical error, that portion of advertising space occupied by the erroneous item, together with a reasonable allowance for signature, will not be charged for, but the balance of the advertisement will be paid for at the applicable rate. The publisher reserves the right to categorize advertisements or decline. Editorial and advertising content of the Oakville Beaver is protected by copyright. Unauthorized use is prohibited. Commentary Guest Columnist NEIL OLIVER Vice President and Group Publisher DAVID HARVEY General Manager JILL DAVIS Editor in Chief ROD JERRED Managing Editor DANIEL BAIRD Advertising Director RIZIERO VERTOLLI Photography Director SANDY PARE Business Manager Metroland Media Group Ltd. includes: Ajax/Pickering News Advertiser, Alliston Herald/Courier, Arthur Enterprise News, Barrie Advance, Caledon Enterprise, Brampton Guardian, Burlington Post, Burlington Shopping News, City Parent, Collingwood/Wasaga Connection, East York Mirror, Erin Advocate/Country Routes, Etobicoke Guardian, Flamborough Review, Georgetown Independent/Acton Free Press, Harriston Review, Huronia Business Times, Lindsay This Week, Markham Economist & Sun, Midland/Penetanguishine Mirror, Milton MARK DILLS Director of Production MANUEL GARCIA Production Manager CHARLENE HALL Director of Distribution ALEXANDRIA ANCHOR Circ. Manager WEBSITE oakvillebeaver.com The Oakville Beaver is a division of Housing disaster moving into 905 Garth Turner, Halton MP o you have most of your wealth in your house? Most people in Halton do. So I hope you know what's going on. Garth Turner Just days ago the Harper government abruptly announced changes which will affect the value of almost all homes. It's ending easy access to mortgage credit, reducing the amount of money homebuyers can borrow according to their income and making it harder for self-employed to get financing. By Oct. 15, young couples will no longer find 40-year mortgage amortizations (which lower monthly payments), or qualify for 100 per cent financing, for example. The moves are the right thing to do, but only because bringing in 40-year loans and zero-down was a destructive action on the part of the Conservatives. By lowering the bar for home ownership, these mortgages helped turn a strong real estate market into a bubble, since they drove up prices by creating more demand from people without money. Now, with the economy weakening and gas prices soaring, the housing market is deflating all on its own. So this is the worst moment for the feds to cut off buyers. The impact on major homebuilders in our region could be severe, since they've been relying on young buyers who need long mortgages and whose typical down payment was just enough to cover closing costs -- under two per cent. Under the new rules, neither will be allowed, or vital mortgage insurance will be withheld. Without new home sales, and with a segment of potential homebuyers gone, we can expect the housing meltdown to pick up speed. As I wrote in my recent book, Greater Fool, Canada is not immune from the real estate disaster, which has struck the U.S., and it's unfortunate the feds can't see this coming. As in the States, about the worst thing that can happen to family finances is when the family home starts losing equity. By the way, things are getting worse to the south. Last week, Indymac, a major southern California-based lender, went down just a couple of days after suspending mortgage loans and laying off half its staff, almost 4,000 people. This is the fifth bank to fail recently and there are more to come. At the same time, the two largest mortgage enterprises in America, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, together owning $5 trillion worth of home loans, are on the verge of nationalization by Washington. U.S. real estate is still descending, with a bottom not expected now until sometime next year. That will make this housing bust at least four years in length -- the most significant one since the Great Depression. In Canada, no giant bank failures and stumbles, but an inevitable bursting of the housing bubble. In one of the most in-demand neighbourhoods in the GTA, Leaside, sales have declined this year by 77 per cent. In Canada's most expensive city, Vancouver, transactions are down 42 per cent and listings up almost 20 per cent. In the most coveted cottage area, Muskoka, deals have tumbled this summer by 50 per cent. Here in the 905, home sales have slowed dramatically. This was bound to happen since average Canadians can no longer afford average homes. The fact it's accelerating, made worse by the energy crisis, should surprise nobody. People like me have been trying to get Jim Flaherty's attention on this for more than a year. While Mr. Flaherty should never have allowed this stuff to come into existence, turning off the tap will not solve a thing. It will accelerate the real estate decline. For three years we've watched this disaster unfold to the south of us. During that time, when it could have made a difference, the government did not prepare. Garth Turner is MP for Halton. Reach him directly at garth@garth.ca. IAN OLIVER President Media Group Ltd. Canadian Champion, Milton Shopping News, Mississauga Business Times, Mississauga News, Napanee Guide, Newmarket/Aurora EraBanner, Northumberland News, North York Mirror, Oakville Beaver, Oakville Shopping News, Oldtimers Hockey News, Orillia Today, Oshawa/Whitby/Clarington Port Perry This Week, Owen Sound Tribune, Palmerston Observer, Peterborough This Week, Picton County Guide, Richmond Hill/Thornhill/Vaughan Liberal, Scarborough Mirror, Stouffville/Uxbridge Tribune, Forever Young, City of York Guardian D RECOGNIZED FOR EXCELLENCE BY: Ontario Community Newspapers Association Canadian Community Newspapers Association Suburban Newspapers of America THE OAKVILLE BEAVER IS PROUD OFFICIAL MEDIA SPONSOR FOR: United Way of Oakville TV AUCTION His e-mail is open and offers and opportunities pour in I am sorting junk e-mail. Only I don't get why they call this particular type of correspondence `junk'. And I certainly can't fathom why everyone complains their e-mail boxes are being blitzed, to the point where so-called legitimate emails are getting lost. Seriously: if not for Junk E-mail, I'd be a poor pathetic loser with no hopes or prospects. Instead, baby, I'm a rich man (on so many glorious levels). Each day while most people are busy punching the delete key to purge these e-mails, I read them. In the past week alone I've received innumerable astounding offers and opportunities of a lifetime in a variety of languages. What kind of offers and opportunities? Well, sweet salvation, for starters. And the chance to buy assorted medicines, sans prescriptions. Job offers. Business proposals. Carnal propositions (from pretty, pliable and, it goes without saying, naked housewives). Just a few minutes ago a magnanimous soul e-mailed offering me, and I quote, "a wicked wiener." Hot dogs tend to upset my stomach, so I took a pass. Alas, while salvation, naked housewives, wicked wieners and the like are all well and good, the best thing I've received via junk e-mails is cash. Here's how I'm getting rich through junk, and keep in mind I'm not fabri- cating any of these e-tales: A 58-year-old deaf German woman named Nancy e-mailed to say she has breast cancer, has two months to live, and $8.6 million to give away, and she's chosen to give it to me. A complete stranger. Imagine. Nancy is so desperate to have me coddling her cash, she's e-mailed 10 times over the past six months, each time reitAndy Juniper erating she has only two months to live. An anonymous bank in Hong Kong has "a business proposal" for me worth $19.5 million. The bank executive said she needed to know if I "can handle this personally." Of course, I can handle $19.5 mill personally. Who couldn't? Not surprisingly, God led an African woman straight to me, or so she said (proving that God does indeed work in mysterious ways). Apparently this woman inherited a "trunk box" full of money that's hidden in America and she's too young to retrieve it, which is where I come in. Likewise, a guy in Britain "liked my online profile" -- I have an online profile? -- so, he's going to give me 13 million pounds (of money, I assume, although it could be sausage) even though he admitted to "being constrained" about "giving any details." Another magnanimous soul who works for The Local Bank of South Africa discovered a dormant account with $36 million, and if I forward my bank info, he'll transfer it to me. He doesn't say why, and I'm not one to ask. Hearts of gold, I tell you, hearts of gold. Kind of restores your faith in mankind and life, doesn't it? One random morning you open your e-mail and next thing you know you're a zillion dollars and a whole lot of pounds richer. Now, I know some skeptics are thinking these offers might not be legit. Well, even if they're not, I'm still filthy rich because I've also been notified that I've won a whack of lotteries: 500,000 pounds from the UK On-line Promotion -- I don't even remember buying a ticket; one million Euros in The Dutch Bonanza Draw; and a minute ago, an e-mail arrived with news the UK National Lottery is mine, all mine, a whopping 1,628,360 pounds. Wow, now I can get that new putter I've had my eye on. Junk e-mail? I don't think so. My e-mail inbox is overflowing. Soon my bank account will be too. Andy Juniper can be visited at his Web site, www.strangledeggs.com, or contacted at ajuniper@strangledeggs.com.