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Economy's future still cloudy says Chamber guest speaker By Kim Arnott SPECIAL TO THE BEAVER The stock market is up, investor and consumer confidence is returning, and it's safe to say we've weathered a recession that never dragged the Canadian economy into the Great Depression-like depths that some feared. Still, there are potential storm clouds on the horizon, warns Don Drummond, chief economist for TD Bank Financial Group. In a speech at the annual general meeting of the Oakville Chamber of Commerce last week, Drummond cautioned against taking too rosy a view of the coming few years. Current economic growth in the United States is being driven by that country's cash-forclunkers program, which is providing a short-term boost to auto sales. However, that robust growth is likely to be short-lived. And while Drummond said he expects to see the global economic recovery continue over the coming several years, he is predicting gradual growth. "The worst of the U.S. economic malaise is over and they are recovering," he said. "But this is not going to be the gangbuster type of recovery." A slow return to consumer spending is likely, given that Americans have seen $14 trillion in net wealth disappear over Don Drummond the last year, and are still seeing constraints on their credit. "They feel poorer and because they feel poorer, they'll spend less," Drummond said. On the good news front, stimulus projects will contribute to an ongoing economic recovery through 2010 and 2011. As well, the American housing market, which spawned the meltdown that quickly travelled the world, appears to have bottomed out. Still, looking beyond 2011, Drummond sees "a mittful of problems." The massive public spending that arrested the recession will create significant fiscal headaches for all levels of government. Mired in debt, most will be forced to cut spending, which will slow economic growth. Drummond fears the financial challenges in the United States will be particularly severe. "They already had a fiscal mess and now they have a disaster on their hands," he said. High levels of American debt will likely see the Canadian dollar remain strong in comparison to the greenback, while the slow recovery rate will keep inflation and interest rates in check. Drummond expects to see Canadian unemployment peak around 9.1 per cent, with all provinces seeing economic growth by next year. Housing markets remain solid, and the plan to harmonize Ontario provincial sales tax with the GST next summer is "incredibly important" from a business point of view, he added. Still, despite the good news in Canada, last year's economic meltdown provided the world with a graphic illustration of the interdependency of the global economy. "Whether you were in Australia or Norway, you were affected by what happened in the United States," he said. "It means that when there's a problem in the world, it spreads almost immediately." With problems still existing in American financial markets, as well as challenges resulting from government debt levels, a rosy outcome is hardly guaranteed. "We're still seeing a lot of risk in the global economy," Drummond said. WoW Power Walking is the leading coaching program in North America for people who want to get fit from walking. The program was designed by WoW Power Walking founder Lee Scott eight years ago. Since then Lee has become a recognized expert on how to coach people to become walking athletes. Lee has walked 16 marathons and numerous other distance events. In 2008 she won the walking division of the Cleveland Marathon with a time of 4:55:58. This time and that of many participants in the WoW Power Walking Program is comparable to the times of many runners. Lee has been featured in magazines, on television, and at conferences across North America. She is the Marathon Walking Coach for Prevention magazine. Now Lee and her coaches are teaming up with the Running Company at 118 Thomas Street to present two program options for interested Walk Your Butt Off! ADVERTORIAL 15 · OAKVILLE BEAVER Wednesday, September 23, 2009 walkers. New this fall is the Walk Your Butt Off Fitness Level 1 program which will meet 3 times per week (Mon, Wed, Thurs evenings) for 6 weeks starting Monday September 28. This program is designed for people who want to make a real commitment to changing a sedentary lifestyle into a healthy and active one. A second program, Walk Your Butt Off High Performance Level 1 meets on Saturday mornings for 8 weeks. This program is geared toward people who want to get a serious cardio workout from walking - possibly walk a marathon! If you want to walk your butt off, come out to a fun and educational information meeting tonight (Wednesday, September 23) at the Running Company, 118, Thomas Street from 6-7pm. You're going to be amazed at how walking can change your body and your life! Kids & adults get active at the Y. Get a membership, get fit! Program information at We build strong kids, strong families, strong communities. OB090923 905-845-3417 410 Rebecca St., Oakville, ON L6K 1K7 E-mail: customerservice@oakville.ymca.ca Bring this ad to the YMCA of Oakville and get FREE Adult Workout Pass. Offer expires Oct. 7, 2009