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THE HERALD OUTLOOK Saturday June 1990 the HERALD Outlook OUTLOOK Is published each Saturday by he HILLS HERALD Home Newspaper of Halton Hills A Division of Canadian Newspapers Company Limited at Guelph Street Georgetown Ontario Canadian dollar will tumble money expert says Dianne Maley Your Business TORONTO Get out of Canadian dollars before its too late says Stephen Janslowsky a Montreal money manager Sooner or later the Canadian dollar will tumble against its S counterpart Mr Janslowsky predicts When you know that a volcano can explode you do not stick around he told the Cana dian Association of Financial Plan recently Mr is no wild eyed He is one of Canadas most esteemed money managers So his warning must be taken seriously As he sees it there is a per cent chance that the dollar will collapse It could fall right through its previous low of cents US Constitutional talks have nothing to do with his forecast Mr says The federal governments growing foreign rowing and heavy reliance on short term debt make the ex change rate vulnerable WHAT DO DO I called Mr treal to see what investors could do to protect themselves Transfer money outside of the country he said flatly Must the transfer be physical I asked Not necessanly he said Opening a S dollar bank account may do But if the dollars eventual fall pro mpts exchange controls only money that has been transferred outside the country will be safe he noted Given Mr Janslowsks reputa tion it may be wise to consider diversifying your investments People with substantial sums to invest can buy S Treasury notes and bonds money market paper issued by big S corporations or other such things People with less money can transfer funds to a S dollar bank account in Canada If you are planning to travel south next winter this might be a good time to buy your S dollars You will not earn as much interest as you would on Canadian dollars but you could still come out ahead The reason we are getting so much interest is because our cur is no good Mr said Another to hedge against a tumbling currency is to Canadian based mutual funds that invest in US or international stocks and bonds Or can open ended mutual single funds for example that trade on the Stock change If jour is locked up in a registered retirement savings plan you can still protect it from currency fall Mr sky points out The bulk of fundi must be invested in Canadian securities Poets Corner THE OPAQUE MASK When she speaks fire comes out When she is silent her eyes rove about She Is never happy or cares lobe But loves making other peoples lives miserable which deeply disturbs me I often wonder what the future holds for a person like her I cant help but wonder what her life would be like if something good were to occur If I only knew why she acts this way Pecking at her prey from day today Its too bad though that she doesnt care about anyone else but herself For I have seen her quietly hide her emotions on a lonely shelf Who is this she you may ask She is a person known to many even though she wears an opaque mask Dawn Manning Georgetown THREE LITTLE COLTS Three little colts two In tan fuzzy lite One in black touched with white Bom In a corner on the Line In a shack Maybe someday tug winners on the track Where the wind blows hard And the draft comes through They dont mind the cold Their hides are tough and bold They need their mother for a month or two Till the grass grows tender And they learn to chew When disturbed they I eaves a thrill in you for years Hope some day will find a home Where someone is proud to own By Albert Brooks I LONG TIME AGO Hello my little darling I hope youre feeling fine I havent heard or seen you for a long long time My old car is acting up its really getting bad If I dont see you soon I think I will go mad When I get so lonely 1 only think of you Then you do not write to me I feel so awful blue Old Lizzy will be working Ill be coming down You will see a cloud of dust heading into town Maybe you dont know me to you I would be true I have got to see you if its the last thing I do By Albert Brooks 8772201 PUBLISHER K Robert Malcolms on EDITOR Brian MacLeod AD MANAGER Dan Taylor Second Class Mall Registered Number STAFF WRITERS Ben Dummett SPORTS EDITOR Colin Gibson ACCOUNTING Jennie CLASSIFIED ADVERTISING Inga Shier ADVERTISING SALES Valois Craig Teeter Roberts PRODUCTION DEPARTMENT Dave Hastings Stu Robertson Susanne Wilson CIRCULATION Marie Shadbolt SNAFU by Bruce Beattie Peterson memo recalls Trudeaus faux pas Kevin Bell Got a mailmans uniform I want to disrupt a dog show US savings industry is in trouble the Federal Reserve says the cost could exceed billion Just a few months ago William the man in of Federal Deposit In also told Con that his estimate was half a trillion His testimony before a congressional committee so outraged the White House that Bush publicly said it would not be a bad idea if would leave his position before his fiveyear term expires next year Some people dont like to hear the truth Seidman responded when asked about Bush s efforts to fine him the heave ho The trend is clear The estimates have been rising rapidly Just five months ago the highest figure be ing bandied about was billion But the weekend talk show pundits ha e seen the line on the graph sharply Some are now predic ting a bailout of billion or more A few days a go the New York Times labelled the savings and loan bailout as the biggest scan ever Forget the relatively puny bailouts of Chrysler Lockheed and New York City a Times said Even the Marshall Plan which bailed out Western Europe years ago cost a mere billion in todays dollars So where is the S publics outrage Taxpayers went nuts when Congressmen voted themselves a pay raise last year that amounted to a total of a paltry few million dollars more in annual congressional salaries The pay- rise issue is so hot that a virtually unknown candidate used It to challenge an incumbent for his party s nomination and came within a few percentage points of beating him sending a chill to many Congressmen who are facing re election this year TOO HUGE But why arc the same taxpayers apparently oblivious to the fact they will be asked to foot most of the bill for a possible bailout Perhaps as one recently said the figures are so huge that the average person can get his or her mind around them WASHINGTON The super power summit may have kept President George Bush s mind off one of his biggest problems The bailout of the savings and loan industry isn t yet seen by the public as one of the White House s top priorities But after the depar ture of Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev from Washington Bush sooner or later will have to con front growing concern over the cost of breathing new life into S and that went belly up after managers poured billions into government insured loans Nobody seems to know that the exlSct tally will be for reimbursing depositors but it probably will be much higher than the official White House estimate of billion When the Reagan administration first realized that there was a pro blem with falling S and it asked Congress for 15 billion to boost the deposit insurance fund The industry thought it could get along with a mere billion but Congress voted for 11 billion anyway KEPT GROWING Last year the government spent an estimated billion on S and Since then the problem seems to have grown at an exponential rate Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady testified before Congress that the cost of the bailout might reach billion a figure that most experts say is overly op timistic The General Accounting Office which audits Congresss books says billion will be needed Alan Greenspan the chairman of OTTAWA If Ontano Premier David Peterson needs a shoulder to cry on over his embarrassment about that leaked memo he could always call Pierre Trudeau You remember him He was prime minister dunng another in famous leak over constitutional negotiations And what he had to deal with was far more embarrass ing than the junior bureaucrat memo that now haunts the Ontario premier When the federal leak occurred back in 1980 the prime minister couldnt even blame it on some un named junior bureaucrat It was the handiwork of Michael Kirby who was Mr Trudeaus point man in the negotiations that led up to the 1982 of the Constitu It was almost as though the memo came from the prime minister himself And to say that it was merely an embarrassment would be irrespon sible understatement It nearly scuttled the negotiations entirely The police were called in to see if the source of the leak could be trac ed but nothing was ever revealed However it is interesting that the Parti which recently acknowledged having spies in Ottawa during its reign in Quebec was the first recipient of the memo The provinces intergovernmen tal affairs minister of the day Claude Monn had a field day distributing the document Mr Trudeau was not amused SIMILAR ADVICE Actually apart from the seniori ty of the authors the two memos have a number of things in com mon They both offered advice to the governments that employed the authors and they both delved into the devious business of dividing the provinces and diluting the opposition In the case of the memo which the premier claimed he never saw the suggestion was to undermine the credibility of the three dissenting premiers on the accord Credited to or blamed on two junior bureaucrats the embarrassing memo suggested that Premier Gary Filmon of Manitoba be por trayed as erratic inconsistent and unpredictable and that New Brunswick Premier Frank McKen na be portrayed not as con ciliatory but as part of the pro blem As for Newfoundland Premier Clyde Wells his concerns should be described as out of pro portion After hearing about it Mr Peterson described the memo as one of the stupidest things I have ever seen in government and he suggested the career paths of the authors might be in for a dramatic downturn In the case of the leaked Kirby memo Mr did not have the same freedom of expression