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Opinion- THE HERALD January Canadians reacting to threats of terrorism TORONTO The escalating war In the Persian Gulf is spark ing increasingly stringent terrorist measures in Ontario not only by officials at sensitive locations but even amongst the public But a spokesman for an in dependent strategic studies organization says that Canada is not a high priority terrorist target and people should not be swept up in a tide of panic Citizens should remain calm and try to go about your lifestyle in as calm and normal a way that you can said Chris of the Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies Stores which sell surplus arm ed forces supplies in Toronto report sharply increased demand for gas masks from the public and some said they are already out of stock Drug stores in the east end of Metro Toronto also report they have sold out of potassium iodine pills designed to delay the ab sorption of radioactive iodine in the event of fallout from a possi ble attack on the nearby nuclear power plants Meanwhile federal and cial officials while acknowledg ing that security has been beefed up at locations sensitive to attack by proIraqi or American terrorists have clammed up on being taken Official focus is centred on such sensitive locations as nuclear power stations airports ment offices or armed forces weapons arsenals where attacks could come in reprisal for Canadas support of the S led assault on Iraq and Kuwait A spokesman for Ontario Hydro which has three nuclear power stations said the utility was responding accordingly to the situation Its difficult the more one says the more one invites said Douglas Armour but you can judge for yourself Pearson International Airport outside of Toronto is not even answering security queries Public Relation spokesman Bruce referred questions to Transport Canada officials in Ot following Allied Forces ac on Wednesday A spokesman at Transport Canada acknowledged that security has been enhanced at all Canadian airports both for flights into and out of Canada and within the country Security at Canadian border crossing points has also been in tensified with holders of Queens Park Bureau A by Pauline Johnson Thomson News Service and Kuwaiti passports being sub jected to two screenings before being allowed entry according to television station reports Premier Bob told reporters after the outbreak of war that his best contribution to security arrangements would be to keep my mouth shut However there are noticeably more security officers on duty at the Ontario legislature White they are not armed reporters have been told thay they have quick access to arms if necessary The provincial government also has an Emergency Planning department within the Ministry of the Solicitor General to deal with public safety operations in the event of a disaster like an at tack on a nuclear power station Government officials also have access to an underground bunker at Canadian Forces Base Borden southwest of Bame Both the SaveMore Sport Shop and the Army Store in Toronto report increased demand for gas masks in the past few days and they are already sold out Kanital Chiba at the Army Store said he usually sells about six gas masks a year but he has sold about 24 in the past two days and cannot get more from his supplier some masks are being sold for use in antiwar protests some are going to families who are scared said He said his masks are of the latest design and do work but other stores said they are not sell ing the masks with the assurance that they work However Cushing cautioned against the public resorting to such alarmist measures He said that in his opinion many of the masks could be obsolete and there is a danger of selfinjury or suffocation by people who are not trained to use them Reports of deaths in Israel after Iraqi missiles hit the coun try said that four people died of suffocation after failing to open the plugs or remove seals in their gasmasks said that the United States and Europe are far more likely to be the target of terrorist attacks than Canada the S because it led the Allied Forces against Iraq and Europe because it has a historical network of ter rorist organizations The danger to Canada is more because it could be used as a transit route for terrorists to the US he said However he said there are two types of terrorism threats The first is the organized terrorist such as a professional Iraqi agent Canadian security ser vices which are on full alert are very aware of this type of threat and prepared to track the agent and deal with them The second type and potential ly more dangerous is the loner the unbalanced individual who watches television and wants to make headlines or who is upset Cushing said Obviously people should keep an eye out for this but buying gas masks is just hysteria Cushing said It gives in to the goal of terrorists which is to ter rorize I think it is an over- reaction and my advice is that the chances of an individual be ing hurt are very slight Anti- war movement in US threatens Bush WASHINGTON The rapid rise of an anti war movement across the United States looms as a growing threat to the popular support President George Bush has enjoyed so far for Operation Desert Storm Unlike the Vietnam War where an war movement built slow ly over years as Americans ques tioned their countrys goals in Southeast Asia large peace pro tests and rallies were seen across the country before the first bomb was dropped last Wednesday Even veterans of the peace movement are astonished at how the effort has grown the Wall Street Journal observed The swelling war move ment serves as a reminder of the political price Mr Bush cold pay if he commits S troops only to find that a war drags on or pro duces high casualties Minutes after word came from Baghdad that an attack was under way last Wednesday even ing the number of protesters in front of the White House started to swell So far the rallies have been pintsized compared to the massive protests that tore American society apart during the Vietnam War But the rhetoric and techniques have been borrowed from that war to reflect the concern that the gulf crisis could become another quagmire like Vietnam This week a march from the National Cathedral and an Eve of Destruction rally attracted thousands A folk singer played Bob Dylan protest songs as another group held a diein Some protesters erected a small replica of the Vietnam Veterans Memorial with the names of s soldiers who had died in accidents during the Per sian Gulf buildup While alt this activity was going on police stood in line along Pennsylvania Avenue to the White House a grim reminder of the worst days of Vietnam Washington Bureau by Kevin Bell Thomson News Service Reports from the Middle East indicate that American troops have been disturbed by television scenes of anti war tions but the White House has downplayed their effect I think the demonstrations are all part of the democratic process and we accept them presiden tial spokesperson Marlin water told reporters I think its fair to say that weve been trying to prepare the American people since Aug 2 on the possible use of force However also urged Americans and Congress to show support for the soldiers a sign that the White House may be vous about the effect on troops morale Early polls show overwhelming support for Bushs decision to strike but that may reflect a rally around the president mood in the first days after the launching of Operation Desert Storm Other polls have shown the American people may be deeply divided The results of the latest poll the New York Times and CBS News shows Americans are split on military action The poll con ducted several days before con flict broke out found that 47 per cent of the respondents supported military action to force raq from Kuwait while per cent wanted the S to rely on sanctions The remainder were undecided The rallying crv for the war movement has become no blood for oil reflecting the belief the primary motivation for war is to ensure a plentiful supply of inexpensive gasoline The Pen tagons caginess about discussing the S casualties after the first raids indicates how sensitive the American people are to the loss of life to attain U S goals in the Per sian Gulf Other objections to war abound from what is perceived to be a disproportionate representation of minorities in the armed services to the miserly contributions of Germany and Japan to the United Nations ef fort And war vitnol has come from both the left and right wings Add them to an already divided public and Bush may see the antiwar movement explode It no wonder he has been promising that any conflict will be short and sharp Anything else could be devastating to his political future 1990 was not kind to budget forecasters OTTAWA About a year ago the Finance Department issued a paper touting the accuracy of its economic forecasts Of forecasts regularly surveyed the study gloated the departments predictions published along with the federal budget were the second most ac curate A Finance spokesman wouldnt say who ranked first for reasons of confidentiality Well an institution that sticks its neck out so blatantly is bound to come under closer scrutiny The department might well wish now it t been so bold The fact is that was not kind to the budget forecasters Finance was disastrously off in its predictions on interest rates It overestimated unemployment in the first half of the year and then undershot the mark The budget predictions of last February foresaw modest economic growth last year but the final figures will show an ac tual decline in production for 1990 as a whole Finance also blew its guess about how far the American economy would fall and when the United Stales sneezes Canada catches a cold Naturally some error might be attributable to the Persian Gulf crisis which has now broken out into war But much of the miscalculation occurred before Iraq marched into Kuwait last August There no inclination here to scott at the departments failures in AH economic seers know the risks of the game and that sometimes theyll be wrong just as every columnist can miss the mark TAXPAYERS PAY But when the Finance Depart ment errs in its budget it costs taxpayers The goof on interest rates for instance means the federal deficit for the current fiscal year ending in March could be as much as billion higher than anticipated Finance Minister Michael Wilson has already revised the deficit figure up to about billion from the original billion Some economists believe Wilson is still off target and the final number will be far worse While person income tax lions in the first half of were large the deeper than anticipated recession has eroded Ottawa Bureau by Vic Parsons Thomson News Service k Ottawa corporate tax revenues by about three per cent And the declining economy leading to in creased unemployment has pushed jobless benefits I per cent higher and federal welfare contributions up 20 per cent How wrong was Finance Its prediction for consumer price hikes of per cent was close to the mark But the budget forecast said overall economic growth in would be per cent The latest guesses because not all the data are in yet suggest a shrinkage in production of goods and services of about one per cent from the onset of the recession last spring until December he average interest rate forecast for 90day commercial paper was per cent Were looking now a about per cent Finance estimated unemplov ment would average per cent for the final three months of 1990 but the figure will be closer to 9 per cent In human terms thats about workers without hobs that Finance did not expect And how about these quotes from the budget The weakest is ex pected to be from the fourth quarter of 1989 to mid 1990 The first quarter of 1990 could be par ticularly weak In fact the economy grew by 5 per cent in the first three mon ths of 1990 the only quarter of growth in the year The weakest quarter last year was the October toDecember period Growth is expected to re bound in the latter half of and in Sorry folks its getting worse Right now we are probably in the weakest penod of the current recession largely because the GST is dampening consumer spending The private sector Con ference Board is expecting a decline of per cent m the period before a modest recovery begins in the spring The S appears unlikely to experience a recession The U S economy is projected to regain momentum in the second half of Unfortunately the second half of 1990 is precisely when the American economy so critical to our own fell into recession Perhaps Finance will do better in its next budget forecast Write us a letter The Herald wants to hear from you If you have an opinion you want to express or a comment to make tend us a letter or drop by the office Our address is Guelph Street Georgetown Ontario All letters must be signed Please Include your address and telephone number for verifies tion The Herald reserves the 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