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THE HERALD Wednesday May MM Page Business A recession increases vulnerability Retail sales fell 12 per cent In the quarter that ended March the first fullquarter decline on record One retail analyst called tMe the worst numbers Ive ever seen Another satd consumer is in a tailspin The danger as the second year of recession takes hold is that we will frighten ourselves by ing into the future looking backward The first quarter is over Sales growth and other measures of economic health are not reported until well after they have happen ed March sales are reported in May May sales will not be known until July A while ago in a fit of good cheer I predicted the recession should hit bottom in April Even so it will be a long time before we feel the benefits of recovery I said at the time GOOD NEWS BAD NEWS This columns bellwether economist Ed of J Lawrence in New York expects a lacklustre recovery to begin Your Business ing the third quarter However we should examine the possibility that the Jaws of nature might dic tate that the longest expansion must be followed by a long if not the longest postwar recession If Mr is right Im wrong As the United States goes so goes Canada but with a lag The good news is that orders to factories for durable goods climbed a respectable 2 per cent in April That was the first rise in four months As well it Office Magic planning move Three years ago Office Magic Stationery then known as Guelph Street Stationery was operating at Guelph Street with a square foot unit Last year it was found necessary to expand doubling size to square feet by knock ing out the wall into the unit beside the office Now due to the overwhelming support of many customers the business is suffering growing pains again In order to better serve friends and customers Office Magic Sta will be relocating to the Sinclair Place Mall across from the A and on the July 1st weekend According to the owners and Doug Our Bear bank business booming The only bank you can hug has helped raise an astonishing for Canadian childrens hospitals this year Thats the slogan for Nicki Bear Bank the mrfscot of Consumers Distributing Every bear bank sold meant a donation to the Childrens Miracle Network The company raised additional funds by hosting a gala and dream auction at the Royal York Hotel in Toronto last November This years total shows a in crease over last year donation Consumers president Maurice Tousson will present the cheque the Childrens Miracle Networks live 21 hour telethon from Disneyland California on June 1 and 2 tatives from Consumers will also present cheques to childrens hospitals across Canada local segments of the telethon In eluded will be a cheque presents to Hospital for Sick Children Foundation for This is the retailers fourth year of supporting the Childrens Miracle Network Telethon rais ing a total of for Childrens Hospitals across Canada How many hugs did Nicki receive Over 65000 last yeai alone customers have all been so very patient with us as we struggled through our early growth period that it is difficult to ask you to bear with us again dunng this move It is our intention to make the move with a minimum of disrup tion to our operation and with this in mind we are taking advantage of this Early Warning note to you to keep you infonned of our future plans to serve you better was bigger than most forecasters expected S durable goods fell 4 per cent in March If durable goods orders are any indication the S economy may have turned around in April So Mr Yardeni might be wrong and I might be right On Thursday morning as I write this column Im betting on Mr That could change later when S car sales for mid May are reported Cars drive the North American economy As it stands weak car sales are threatening to drive the economy off a cliff But a sharp turn in mid May could change that and signal the beginning of a recovery WHAT HAPPENED Why did retail sales plunge in Canada the first quarter The GST no doubt had something to do with it So did Canadians stampeding south of the border to buy Amencan But other forces are at play People are afraid of losing their jobs People are in debt up to their ears and have little extra money to spend People are sick of a life based on consumption of working in longer hours just to pay the bills In recession people remember how vulnerable they are A two- Income family with a big house an imported car and an expen sive lifestyle has had to face the prospect of losing it all especial ly in hard hit debt burdened areas such as southern Ontario People who feel insecure will be in no mood to spend What would it take to en courage people to buy again Lower interest rates lower prices and some assurance that the Great Depression of is not unfolding as author Ravi Batra said it would The hottest prices onTVCRs RCA COLORTRAK REMOTE CONTROL COLOUR TV it Model follow SPECIAL RCA REMOTE CONTROL COLOUR TV and I RCA VCR Direct Access Infrared Remote Recording with Delayed Start Compatible with RCA TV Unified Remote Say 1 saw it in The Herald BOB HAS PRICES THAT ALWAYS SCORE BIG REESES PEANUT BUTTER CUPS OR EATM0RE CANDY BARS KNECHTEL SALAD DRESSINGS French Island Italian 500 Bottle 99 PRODUCT OF USA FRESH LETTUCE HEAD 129r BARBEQUE STYLE RUMP ROAST 099 LB Kg LEAN BEEF BEADY FOR THE GRILL MOORE PARK PLAZA Pleasure To Serve You Monday to Friday a Saturday CLOSED COUPON WITH THIS COUPON SAVE OFF 60 The Purchase of ONE4L BAG OF MILK Special Price With Coupon Special Price ft A A A WithThlS Coupon Only at KnMhMl Coupon Sal May hrouflh Sol SPECIAL PRICE WITHOUT COUPON COUPON WITH THIS COUPON OFF DEI SPECIAL PRICE WITHOUT COUPON HI The Purchase of ONE4L BAG OF MILK Special Price S Wih With This Coupon Sol May through Sal Jun Values effective Saturday May through Saturday June lit 1991