www.insideHALTON.com | OAKVILLE BEAVER | Thursday, November 10, 2016 | 26 H 2016 Presidential election in US not an indicator of future often want to strike gold. Historically, making predictions based on speculation has not proved to be a successful investment strategy. That reality, however, never seems to stop the endless supply of opinions by so-called experts who attempt to see into the future. Predictions should be considered as noise that attempts to Guest Contributor drown out evidence-based investing: an approach based on sound principles and executed Yes, it is true that surprise outcomes can greatly in a disciplined manner over a long period. If predicting the future of stock markets could affect the future value of stocks. The problem is be based on presidential election results, then that predicting surprises on a consistent basis is that information would be widely known, and not possible. Sometimes when a person makes a successful investors would use it to their advantage. prediction they get the false sense of security that they have the ability to predict the future. In reality, a correct prediction is nothing more than good luck, not good skill. Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an index of 500 U.S. stocks, representative of the U.S. stock market. I looked at their monthly returns from January 1926 until June 2016. That time · Thursday Nights: Domestic period covers nine decades and 15 presiden$ 99 cies, from former presidents Calvin Coolidge to Pint & 1 lb of Wings Barack Obama. · Daily special: Large 3 item There is nothing in the data that suggests $ 99 Pizza any sort of the long-term pattern of investment Dine In & Pick up only Featuring Best Montreal Smoked Sandwiches · All Day Breakfast. opefully Canadian investors haven't made investment decisions based on the recent American presidential election. This article was written last weekend, prior to Tuesday's (Nov. 8) election. My personal opinions given in this column are not a result of this week's election, but based on previous U.S. presidential elections over past decades. Financial advisors and investors are often looking for a crystal ball that can be used to anticipate future value of stocks. The dream is to successfully use the information to make investment decisions that will result in large capital gains. That's the "greed" part of investing. Investors Dollars & Sense Peter Watson Pic-A-Deli Weekly Specials: 9 9 Hours: Monday - Saturday 7 am - 1 am Closed Sundays. performance being related to which party holds power. The long-term results of the U.S. stock market have been strong regardless of which party holds the Oval Of ce. When the monthly results of the U.S. stock market are shown in a graph, it is visually obvious that the normal volatility of the ups and downs of the stock market are consistent during all the different presidencies, and the relative increase in value of the stock market is generally consistent over time. In summary, what we have learned over the last 90 years is making any prediction based on a presidential election is a complete waste of time. My assertion supporting evidence-based investing, as opposed to speculating and guessing, has been provided in other columns in previous years. This U.S. election has captured the imagination of many of us and as a result many wonder if this time is different, and there can be some reason to consider the election results as a way of predicting the future. This time is no different. Invest based on evidence, ignore speculation, and that will be your formula for success. -- Submitted by Peter Watson of Peter Watson Investments and Aligned Capital Partners Inc., MBA, CFP , R.F .P ., CIM, FCSI., Certified Financial Planner 670 Fourth Line (905) 339-1905 As distinctive as you are You are unique. Your family is unique. Ask our trusted specialists about personalized options for lasting remembrance, and preserve the memory of one special life forever. Call today to take the first step: 905-257-1100 Look for us on Facebook glenoaks.ca Glen Oaks Funeral Home & Cemetery by Arbor Memorial 3164 Ninth Line (403 & Dundas St.), Miss./Oakville, ON Arbor Memorial Inc. Family Owned. Proudly Canadian.