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§Builders predict weak housing demand tii fo Doywkmwwomhebvokubm artdrmsteaperwmdmtxatnnr- younabaatbnpuagevNomm 'rmmirinrttrttAtrwicauushtserr_ transittmerrourmmetM During the past year. the national and provincial economies have shown signs of improvement, although they have been stop-and-go. To this point, however, statistics on Toronto's economy indicate that it is lag- ging behind the improvements seen in Canada and elsewhere in Ontario: retail trade, building permit values, and hous- and Associates Ltd. Realtor 340 CHURCH ST. OAKVILLE 844-2950 Speaacula SAMUEL CUTE ESTATES - $263,900 musnn xm‘swsm' m ENNBC1AttE-0N-mE-tAtiE $205,000 mnmA no'mum- '" PHH Homequity Relocation Centre RALPH F, MCCWKI " MP” F. MKWIO LU. M2 REDUCED TO SELL - $274,900 RALPH F. MCCORMICK 844-2950 MOVING OUT OFIACROSS CANADA BEVERlV RANKIN' M4 swam RANKIN' same/5 RHINO“) T/H - DOWNIOWN DOWNTOWN COMMFRCML “OLIIOAKVLUI 2950/6274)!” 29$0/842 8134 6839 zations across a range of industries, including financial services. transporta- tion, utilities. and the government sector, are reducing white-collar staff. These cuts, combined with continuing weak lar, and declining interest rates, employ ment in that sector is yet to improve Furthermore, a number of larger organi room, eat-4n kitchen _ door tro garage, weI-sized bedrooms ensuite, fury finished basement Our assessment is that employment in the Toronto CMA has been essentially stable since the second quarter of 1991, although it has been subject to minor up- and-down fluctuations. Meanwhile, Toronto's population has continued to grow, due to high levels of immigration. This has caused an on-going decline in Toronto's employment-to-population ratio (the percentage of adults who have jobs). In consequence, the unemployment rate has reached double-digit territory and was 11.5% in August. The recession in Toronto was initially centred around the manufacturing indus- tries, which have lost 100,000 jobs since 1987. While manufacturing has benefit- ted recently from a lower Canadian dol- - Jd , " WALKING DISTANCE OF HARBOUR ing starts are all weak. More importantly, in terms of housing demand, employment has not yet shown any sustained recov- cry. CALLING ALL FIRST TIME BUYERS! DECORATED WITH DISHNCTION WENDY FARROW' 825-2525 WENDY FARROW' 825-2525 ELAINE STEERS. 825-2t BRETT SMILEY' 274-7474 PRIDE 0F OWNERSHIP 825-2525 Whjtc: Astano 525 has fallen to only Demographics dictate slow house- hold growth Toronto has. traditionally. enjoyed a stronger job market than the rest of Canada. as the employment-to-popula- tion ratio was 8 percentage points higher. This made Toronto attractive for job seekers from other parts of Canada. The 40,000 to 50,000 jobs. bringing employ- ment to 1.82 million by the end of 1994 compared to the 1.77 million recorded this August. balance we expect that between now and the end of 1994 employment will expand at the same rate as the population. at an annual rate of 1.5%. While this will not have much effect on the unemployment rate or the employment-to-population ratio, it will result in the creation of Low interest rates are allowing Toronto's consumers and businesses to recover from the effects of the recession and improve their finances. During 1994 this will increasingly translate into more spending. Furthermore, businesses in Toronto will take advantage of opportuni- ties to expand their exports to the U.S. and other parts of Canada. Given the mix of positive and negative factors, it is dif- ficult to predict the timing and magnitude of employment growth in Toronto. On mplorment-to-popation gap. however After a two year period in which total employment has been flat, a gradual recovery will begin in the near future. E lave/c n io . $314,900/ 't,1"e"i1f'1'yll',,,', _ $1,595 UTI 3tattvooms, SALE/RENT 'gisd'tiGicog employment in retail trade and construc- tion, are off-setting gains in business and personal services. Given that the Toronto economy is more dependent on large organizations than the rest of the nation, the local recovery will continue to lag the national and provincial recoveries. $229, 900 JUST A DREAM $168, 900 WHY PAY MORE! percentage points as a . DOUGLAS [OME' ‘OHN OIMICHELLE' $189, 000 BE cos Y FOR XMAS $187, 500 LARGE LOT Mortgage rates are expected to rise marginally this fall and in 1994 as eco- nomic activity and credit demand gain momentum. The one-year rate is expect- .ed to average 7.00% in 1994 while the five-year rate is expected to remain around its current level of 8.75%. In spite Interest rates to continue to favor home buyers result of the economic recession. The reduction in employment opportunities has reduced the number of Canadians moving to Toronto. On the other hand, the reduction in migration by Canadians is off-set by strong international immi- gration to Toronto. As a result, net migra- tion is forecast to be 32,000 in 1993 and 35,000 in 1994, only 60% of the level observed in the late 1980s. With immigration fueling population growth, household formation and housing demand will remain weak for the next few years. Because immigrants often arrive with limited financial resources, they tend to have low housing demands for some years after their arrival; they have lower household formation rates (they are likely to "double-up") and they are more likely to rent compared to those who are more established. During the second half of the decade, total housing demand will increase and it will shift towards homeownership, as the popula- tion of recent immigrants becomes better established financially. Household formation slowed during 1990 to 1993, as a result of the weak job market. As employment begins its expan- sion, household formation will take the first steps to recovery during 1994, rising modestly to 18.000. See Strong page 16) . PAT (Mr) MP!" . DOUGLAS LDME' . DAVID sutu- ,‘AC