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8 - Orono Weekly Times Wednesday, December 16, 2009 Basic Black by Arthur Black The sky is falling! Maybe. Creative visualization time, kiddos. I want you to imagine a rock. I'm not talking gravel here, or even boulders. The rock we're conjuring up is as wide as three football fields. It's black, it's gnarly and it's hurtling through space just as fast as a big space rock can hurtle. Let's give it a name. Let's call it - oh, I don't know Apophis! Yeah, Apophis. Oh, look - Apophis is getting bigger! It's getting bigger all the time! Actually, that's an optical illusion. Apophis isn't really swelling, it just seems like that because, because... It's heading right toward us. This is not a fantasy exercise. There really is an asteroid named Apophis and it really is headed our way. Should arrive in about 27 years, give or take a week. The good news is, it won't hit us. Probably. A few years back, scientists weren't so sure. Back in 2004, astronomers were getting just the teensiest bit agitated about the space asteroid they'd identified and dubbed Apophis after an ancient Egyptian serpent god. Believe it or not, the name was an improvement. Earlier they'd dubbed the asteroid 2004MN4. They calculated its trajectory and decided there was a chance that the asteroid could be entering earth's atmosphere about 2029. Later they decided that 2036 was the more likely date. Such an occurrence is far from rare. Fact is, the earth is constantly bombarded by a veritable blitzkrieg of space rocks - about 200,000 a day. Most of them, however, are either microscopic or at least have the decency to incinerate themselves when they hit the oxygen of our atmospheric envelope. About 150 morsels of space detritus actually survive long enough to hit our planet's surface but they're mostly tiny and hardly ever even noticed. How much damage would an asteroid as wide as three football fields cause, ploughing into the earth? Depends on where the ploughing gets done. If Apophis came down in the middle of the boreal forest or far out in the Pacific or the Atlantic the result would be merely an ecological catastrophe. If it barrelled into us at, say, the intersection of Yonge and Bloor it would constitute one of the worst disasters in recorded history (and give the Leafs their best excuse yet for a dismal season). Mind you, it wouldn't be as cataclysmic as the meteorite that hammered northern Quebec a few millennia ago. Scientists don't know exactly how big that one was, but it was a monster. And it left a seven-and-a-half mile wide divot now famously known as the Chubb Crater. And then there's the one that many scientists believe caused the extinction of the dinosaurs. The theory is that a massive prehistoric meteor strike around the Yucatan peninsula area ushered in a "nuclear winter" which destroyed much of the life on our planet. But strikes of that magnitude are blessedly rare. In fact scientists have calculated that a meteor strike causing 1,000 human deaths or more "is unlikely" to occur once in a million years. Which is somewhat comforting - until you realize there's no reason that one couldn't cream us next Thursday. As for Apophis, you can come up out of the root cellar. Scientists are now saying that particular galactic cannonball probably won't come within 18,000 miles of planet Earth. But... Apophis still has them worried. Problem is, 18,000 miles still amounts to a close brush in space terms and nobody knows just how that close encounter with earth's gravitational field will affect the orbit of Apophis. Steve Chesley, an astronomer who works with the Near-Earth Object lab in Flintridge, California, says "The deflection caused by the 2029 encounter will be signif- icant. We're worried about its future trajectory. The next time Apophis is expected to be in our neighbourhood is in the year 2068." Chesley reckons there's a one-in-300,000 chance of Apophis hitting the earth on that date. I'm cool with that. In 2068 I'll be turning 125. Even if by some miracle I'm still alive, I'll be too far gone to know my asteroids from a hole in the ground. Reduce Reuse Recycle Classified Business Directory LARRY JACKSON Debra Inglis Interior Design PLUMBING & WATER CONDITIONING Automotive Specialties BRIAN COUVIER Licenced Technician 117 Mill St. Orono L0B 1M0 "Look to us for all your general repairs to most make & models" Rims · Tires · Brakes · Tune-Ups Custom Exhaust Systems Castrol Engine Oil & Filter Service Specials Car & Truck Accessories Professional Installation Custom Drapery "Energy Saving Specials" Dealer & Fine Finishes by T. 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