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Page 4 NORTHWEST HERALD Section B Tustdsy, September 10,19tS Opinion Safety in the air r The recent rash of airplane n crashes has everyone shaking, the airlines, potential passengers, and now, the Federal Aviation Author­ ity (FAA). That federal agency should be quaking in its boots if the latest reports are accurate. According to reports, the FAA rejected five out of eight safety recommendations made by the Na­ tional Transportation Safety Board after the May, 1979 crash of a DC- 10 in Chicago. That crash killed 273 people. The recommendations called for changes in repair and mainte­ nance procedures by the airlines. A story in the Milwaukee Journal Sunday said the FAA had rejected some of the recommendations be cause it claimed its own proce­ dures were adequate. The story also reported that the FAA had said some of the suggestions would place an unwarranted burden on the airlines. The question that, comes to mind: If all the recommendations by the Safety Board had been adopt­ ed, could any of the recent crashes been prevented or fatalities been avoided if these recommendations had been adopted? The FAA has been charged with the regulation of the nation's air­ lines. Although it does not have to follow the recommendations of the National Safety Board, the FAA should ask itself one question. What's more important: trying not to inconvenience the airlines or insuring the safety of passengers? Poverty rates will gcf down The morning after Election Day, politicians start wondering about the next election. Number-crunch­ ers do the same sort of thing in their field. , Consider the poverty rates. The new ones have just been released, and they are heartening. Poverty in the United States went down almost a full percentage point: The rate was 14.4 percent for 1964 compared to 15.3 percent for 1983. If one counts in the market value of "non-cash benefits" that poor people receive (such as food stamps), the rate dropped propor­ tionately: from 10.3 to 9.7 percent. No sooner had the numbers been released than the cruncher-com- munity began asking: What about next year? It's a question ttiat has great bearing on one of the hot intellectual debates of our time. Luckily, there may be hints to­ ward an answer. In statistics it is ^ often true that, as Coach George Allen used to say, "The future is now." The debate concerns what cures poverty. Traditionally, there have been two basic answers. One an­ swer was "a hot economy cures poverty -' Another answer was^ "programs for poor people cure poverty." Conservatives leaned to­ ward the former answer, liberals the latter, but most students of the field agreed that both remedies helped. Now, both traditional views are under sharp attack, from left and right. Rarefied theories abound. Charles Murray in his book "Los­ ing" Ground" says that programs hurt poor people by destroying their incentives^-- to a point where even economic growth doesn't do much good. Other analysts -- more liberal -- also maintain that a buoyant economy doesn't help "the underclass," that is, those people who are trapped by poor health, lack of skills or a broken family situation. A rising tide doesn't lift sunk boats, they say. The underclass theorists maintain that we need more programs. It's been a relevant argument because until 1984, poverty had gone up for five straight years, probably influenced by high infla­ tion and two back-to-back reces­ sions. Now comes a year when the data shows poverty down solidly, apparently linked to a recovering economy and ongoing programs. Ben Wattenberg That's why data for "next year" are so important. One swallow -- the 1984 data -- doesn't make a spring. But the data for 1985 should test the ideas of those who say neither a hot economy nor pro­ grams help the poor much anymore. My sense is they will be shown wrong. For we already know a lot about the factors that will influ­ ence next year's data. How so? Because we've already lived through most of 1985. The data published next August will reflect this year's reality. What's happened so far? It's been a slower year than last, but we have clearly moved ahead. The average number of employed peo­ ple by July of this year was 2 million more than for last year, a big gain. The unemployment rate this year so far is 7.2 percent, down a bit from last year. Disposable real personal income for the first half of the year was 3.1 percent higher than Ii* flat ion so far this year is even lower than last year's low rate. After a flat start, ~the~gross na­ tional product went up by 2 per­ cent during the second quarter of this year, and most economists are predicting a more robust rate for the second half of the year, with no recession likely. Overall social spending on pro­ grams is up, despite all the talk about budget cutting. Divorce rates are down; that may mean that a rise in female-headed fam­ ilies will no longer push up poverty rates. All this should serve to assess the validity of the various theories now afloat. If progress pushes the poverty rate down for another year, that will bolster the tradi­ tionalists. If we remain stuck at about the current 14.4 percent rate -- we may salute those who say the underclass is here to stay. My sense is that poverty will come down in 1985. The rising tide of the economy and the continuation of programs does not lift all boats. Only most ofthem. ^ (Ben Wattenberg is a columnist for Newspaper Enterprise Association) WHST1M ABOUT DTCLLWQMff GO BBOND THESE ms-wgmv? GEKMtHIHimm Thoughts from Richard Nixon Richard Nixon continues to dis­ comfort his critics by saying point­ ed things about the world. Two current articles, one in Foreign Affairs, a second in National Re­ view, accost reality by the scruff of the neck and refresh us with realistic thinking. On the matter of the nuclear bomb, he says what every sane man says, namely that a nuclear exchange is to be avoided and that the way to avoid it is precisely not to say about it that it is unthink­ able. If the Soviet Union were ever to come around to the position that the United States were actually convinced that it was unthinkable, our deterrent force would evapo­ rate. Only a credible threat of re­ taliation actually deters. Another cliche Mr. Nixon penetrates is the notion that it doesn't really matter whether one has or has not nuclear superiority. He takes us back to three American crises, ending with the crisis over Cuba, in which precisely the fact of our superior­ ity prevented the Soviet Union from the kind of apocalyptic friski- ness that suddenly ends the world up in war. Mr. Nixon tacitly reminds us of something we constantly fail to take into account when we play those desolate games that begin by telling us how many times we are in a position to destroy the worlg with our present inventory. A fig­ ure that sticks in the mind is that of Jonathan Schell, who informed us a year or so ago that the com­ bined inventory, east and west, of nuclear bombs is 80 million times the strength of the bomb that ex­ ploded over Hiroshima. If that fig­ ure does not scare you sufficiently, why we'll have to come up with the, heat of the .sun, which one sup­ poses exceeds even Mr. Schell's figure. Carl Sagan will no doubt advise us tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, that if we explode more than six bombs, the sun ei- William F. Buckley ther will stop working, freezing us all to death, or else it will go into such high gear as to frizzle us all to death. All those figures are really quite irrelevant. There is only one sensi­ ble question a sensible custodian of U.S. sovereignty asks, namely, how many deliverable bombs does the United States have left over after a hypothetical first strike by the Soviet Union? The answer right now, as known to everybody, is: no missiles at all based on land, so subtract those. The further an­ swer, known perhaps to some ex­ perts, and suspected by some non­ experts, is: and proceed to subtract X percentage of the nu­ clear bombs carried by our bomb­ ers, because we know that the So­ viet Union has a highly developed ground-to-air capability. Whether it is sufficient to take out all our bombers we do not know. But it is most fearfully powerful. Leaving us with? Our submarines. THey are, when last heard from, fyn- mune from enemy neutralization. But that is the one remaining leg of our triad on which we can cognt with relative confidence. That fig­ ure of 80 million is vastly reduced. Which is OK. What is not OK igr to reduce it to the point of making a first strike attractive to the Soviet Union. Or, better, making merely the threat of a first strike decisive at the bargaining table. But Mr. Nixon's warning comes at a propitious season, a couple of months before Mr. Reagan goes to Geneva, where efforts will be made to festoon our joint commu­ niques with all that estrogen of peace and love and trust that have throughout the history of our sum­ mit conferences strengthened the malefactors and weakened the righteous. . . r (William Buckley is a columnist for Universal Press Syndicate) Reader Forum i'm gonna be late getting back to work... I'm stuck in a traffic (am of Japanesecars sold while we were on strike." NORTHWEST HERALD "Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly." Robert F. Kennnedy ROBERTA. SHAW Editor and Publisher LEONARDM. INGRASSIA Executive Editor STEVENH.HUNTER Marketing Director KAREN A.ANDROS Saturday Editor MICHAEL E. MORSCH News Editor/Regional DENNISM. McNAMARA Editorial Page Editor RONALD L.STANLEY Circulation Director Airport questions To the Editor: During the presentation of the air­ port feasibility study, I was puzzled why the federal government is will­ ing to pay $90,000 for the feasibility study and 90 percent of the costs of constructing a new airport when small airports in the area are going out of business. I've found the answer, but it raises two serious questions for the county board. The money for the feasibility sjudy and the construction of the new air­ port will come from a Federal Trust Fund which is supported by airline ticket and aviat on fuel sales. The trust fund must be used for planning studies and new! construction! The money cannot be used for supporting operations at exisi&g airports, even if there is an existing suitable alter­ native airport that could be preserv­ ed by minor subsidies. The first question for the county board is: Are they aware that once the airport is built, it will be the tax­ payers of McHenry County who will guarantee the operations of the air­ port? The second question for the county board is: Do the taxpayers of McHenry benefit? I think not. Buried in the consultant's report and ob­ fuscated at the public meeting was the concept that the airport would be a relief airport for O'Hare. For now, this means that small planes would be encouraged to use the McHenry County Airport to leave more room at O'Hare for the airlines. In the future, freight operations could be diverted to our airport. The airlines would be the primary beneficiaries of the airport while the federal government pays for the new con­ struction and the taxpayers of McHenry County pay for the opera­ tions. The taxpayers of McHenry County have a choice. The county board can say no to the airport. The benefits ac­ crue to the airlines, not the McHenry County taxpayers who must pay for the operations of a risky business and suffer a permanent alteration in the face of the land and the lifestyle of their county. Michael M.Smith Woodstock The case of the lost purse To the Editor: / Last week, in a hurry, I carelessly left my purse in the train car at McDonalds. More than two hours elapsed before I was able to return to look for it. It was returned to me, On description, exactly as I had left it. Needless to say, I was greatly reliev­ ed to retrieve it, and wish to take this means to thank the person who turn­ ed it in, since they did not leave,'a name, and the McDonald employees who took care of it. I said I was relieved to get my purse back, but I was not greatly sur­ prised, because I believe that the overwhelming majority of odr neighbors are just that -- as well ps being honest and caring persons. Thank you again, neighbors, for rein­ forcing my faith. ^ ! Caroline No^h Crystal Lake Health insurance costs Health insurance premiums, like most health care costs, have been going up for so long that most of us can ' t r emember any o the r condition. But the upward spiral may be nearing its end. For the first time in 25 years, the health insurance premiums paid by most federal workers will drop an average of 6 percent next year. This follows an average increase of only 4 percent this year, the lowest rise in more than six years. Furthermore, some federal work­ ers will be getting refunds on earli­ er premiums. The federal program is the na­ tion's largest group health insur­ ance system, involving several in­ surance companies and covering more than 9 million civil servants and retirees and their relatives. It has long served as a bellwether for premium increases in private-sec­ tor programs and for cost-contain­ ment features that have been' adopted in recent years. The federal premium reductions are possible because fewer claims are being filed. Claims at some major insurance companies have dropped by up to 20 percent in the past nine months. Credit for the drop in claims 'jte attributed to cutbacks in coverage, to requirements for second medi­ cal opinions and, perhaps most im­ portant, to cost-sharing by policy holders. Instead of medical costs being hidden in regular health in­ surance premiums -- often made even more invisible through pay­ roll deductions and employer con­ tributions -- patients now have to pay for some medical services di­ rectly out of their disposable income. The result was predictable. Indi­ viduals are less inclined to utilize medical services for minor health problems' for which their parents would never have thought of gotyg to a doctor. All it took was to make the cost of medical services visible again. ; One year's drop in premiums for one health insurance program does not end our problem wiih health care costs. But it is a start.' (Scripps Howard News Service) '