WHITBY FREE PRESS, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 1987. PAGE 5 If the recent stock market crash has proven anything, it is this: experts are just as confused about economics and the market as the rest of us. Point one: the stock market collapses double (in per- centage points!) the horrid collapse of October, 1929. Ex- perts then debate whether this constitutes a crash or a correction. Point two: for every two experts who say the crash will have no effect on our economy, you will find one who predicts a recession "as deep as the one in 1981-82." Point three: one or two radical economists predict doom, saying the coming recession will indeed be worse than that following the '29 crash. In other words, it will be a depression. Point four: every politician will tell you that "our economy is fundamentally sound and we have no signs of recession in the offing." (Or words to that effect.) Whom do you believe? Let's talk about the points in reverse order. Point four: Following the 1929 crash, MacKenzie King, prime minister of Canada, was asked his reaction. His*reply: The swapping of a few pieces of paper in New York will not fundamentally change the wealth of this country; our wealth is in our mines, and in our farms, and in our fisheries. We still have that wealth. Point three: nobody listens to Cassandra, so why bother? Point two: experts on the stock market make their living either investing in the market, or providing advice on how to play the market, or a combination of both. If you had information which would make you rich, would you share that information free to the news media and millions of readers? Combine points two and three. If market analysis is ac- curate, then no one will be giving it away free. If you foresee a depression, you should mouth platitudes about the economy being fundamentally sound, and sell everything short. When the market declines even further, WITH OUR FEET UP by Bill Swan Stock market tips according to Swan you will become incredibly rich. Remember those stories of people who did just that in the thirties? Point one: repeat the facts here. The stock market collapses (New York) by 22 per cent in one day. This is double the 11 per cent crash in 1929. We have redefined the word "crash". Stock prices in the depression hit their lowest in 1932, not in 1929. They crashed overnight in 1929 -and then con- tinued a downward trend for three years, and didn't begin to revive until 1938-39. Can we have another depression like the thirties? Definitely not. But we can have a depression which will, in its way, scar a whole generation just as deeply. But what sort of credentials do I have for making such predictions? None -except my journalist's objectivity. I have little money and no stocks. I have never made money from stocks. I am not trying to sell you anything. Put that same litmus to other experts and see who is blue and who is pink.- Think about it. To maintain the consumer market, bolster the business economy, the government has already shown it will provide low interest rates. (Remember that the recession in 1981-82 was caused by a government policy of high interest rates -to deflate in- flation!) The low interest rates will in turn cause the dollar to sink in value. The U.S. dollar, to which we are tied, has begun that already. Imported goods will cost more. Ex- ports from North America to the rest of the world should increase. That sounds good, eh? Caution: that huge U.S. deficit is held largely by Japanese banks. As the U.S. dollar falls, those banks will want to be paid back, not in cheaper-U.S. dollars, but in good old trusty Japanese yen. The devalued dollar will in- crease the debt. The result? The U.S. (and Canadian) deficits will grow by leaps over the next five years. Inflation will jump back to double digits before the end of 1988. Prices over the next five years will double..Incomes will try to keep up, but won't quite make it. And investment according to Swan? Stocks? Nope. They're going for a deeper dive. Gold? Face it: if everybody tries to get their money out of stocks and into gold, gold will be over-priced. And then, it, too, will crash ingloriously. Bonds? Maybe - but the inflation to come will run far ahead of interest rates. Everybody will fall behind. Real estate? Always a safe bet. But think of it as long term -you won't be able to liquidate for five to ten years unless you want to take a real beating. Best bet? Monopoly money. Makes a great game for winter evenings. Besides, who'll be able to afford a night on the town? Crossing guards reconsidered Whitby's operations committee has advised staff to again look at placing crossing guards at the in- tersections of Anderson St. and Bradley Dr./Fredrick St., and Garden St. and the CPR tracks, af- ter parents complained of inadequacies in staff reports. A public works report had recommended guards for both locations be denied. Parents in the Andersori/Bradley area want the guard for their children attending Pringle Creek school. Angela Fountain told committee Monday night that a department count of children crossing at the Anderson/Bradley intersection was inaccurate. The department reported 23 children crossed the intersection on Monday, Oct. 26, 10 children on Oct. 27 and 12 children on Oct. 28. "When you did this, there was bad weather on the Tuesday. A lot of children were driven to school," said Fountain. She said no matter how many times she will instruct her children not to cross at the intersection "one kid is going to step out unprotected and there is going to be a bad ac- cident." "Our mandate is to provide a safe means to school -not many (means)," said Dick Kuwahara, director of public works, noting there are now crossing guards at Anderson and Ribblesdale and An- derson and Manning. Children from the Bradley area have to walk up to Manning to cross Anderson, a quar- ter of a mile out of their way, said Fountain. Kuwahara said the safest means of crossing the street will be when the lights are installed at Anderson and Manning Rd. by the Town traf- Kuwahara said the safest means of crossing the street will be when traffic lights are installed at An- derson and Manning Rd. by the Town this month. Fountain also suggested a four- way stop be placed at the Bradley Dr./Ribblesdale intersection. The department will do a traffic count on the intersection to see if a four- way stop is warranted. The department will also take another look at a guard for Garden St. and the CPR tracks after Larry harris, who chairs the Leslie Mc- Farlane school advisory commit- tee, called a department comment "utter nonsense." The comment read: "A guard would not be capable of stopping a train to allow children to cross the tracks." "That is utter nonsense. No one expects a guard to stop a train," said Harris. He also disputed department figures that stated during a two- week period no trains crossed Gar- den St. during crossing guard hours. "As of Oct. 19, there have been nine occasions where parents had to stop with their kids," said Harris, adding that on Oct. 1, drivers of three cars that were stopped for an oncoming train had to jump from their cars to help small children clear the track. Harris also argued that a staff comment that children were ob- seved staying at the track was an incentive for a guard who he said is an "authority figure." "authority figure. "Do staff feel $80 per week (the cost for a crossing guard) is too high to pay for a child's safety," said Harris. "No. That is not too much to pay," said councillor Tom Edwar- ds. Both Edwards and councillor Joe Drumm said the change of school boundaries by the school board causes crossing problems. "I feel manipulated by this other body," said Edwards. "If a kid gets'killed, it is not our fault. I don't buy that argument," said Drumm, adding he would be pushing for guards at both locations and approval of the four-way stop. "In two weeks, I will be prepared to recommend all these things," he said. Fountain also said residents in the Bradley area would like traffic lights at the Anderson/Bradley in- tersection but she wvas informed they are not warranted. Man charged after accident A 27-year-old Whitby man has been charged by Minden OPP with impaired driving causing bodily harm after 11-year-old Jeneffer Scheffee of Haliburton suffered two broken legs and internal injuries Halloween night. She had been trick-or-treating when she was hit by a car that swerved onto a lawn on County Rd. 1, 1 km. south of Haliburton. Charged with impaired driving causing bodily harm and failing to remain is Clifford Harvie, 27 of Hialeah Cres. He was to appear at a bail hearing on Tuesday, Nov. 3. 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