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"Tf to these drawbacks of a general nature affecting the yield of the land we add the fact that all Italy has just one acre of tillable land for each person in its population today, we shall see that Italy is in no position to support an increase of numbers through exten-- wsion of its agriculture. Indeed, agriculture in Italy fails to support even the people who apparently live by it, because it is of such ga,dqsea.fional nature. Unlike the genera] farmer in this country, great înumbe'g's of Italian peasants can work at home for only a few gmogflt each year; and as a consequence for a century or more the \@'gratory Itaiian labourer has been a well--known figure all over _ central--and western Europe. There is comparatively little room for _ more workers in Italian agriculture. Any addition to their numbers necessarily means that an already very low standard of living must be still further reduced, and it cannot be reasonably expected that this increased hardship will be endured passively if it appears at all probable that any alleviation is to be secured by the use of force. "It is also of importance to note in this connection that even now Italy is not self--sufficient agriculturally. It imports large quan. tities of cereals and cotton (the cheaper foods and fabrics), and ex-- ports in part payment for them the more expensive foods and fabrics (cheese, butter, fruit, and silk). Besides, the importation of cereals is on the increase, being about fifty per cent greater now than before the war." (Since the 'Battle for Wheat' the importation of cereals has decreased considerably and Italy is now self--support: ing in this respect due to the exploitation of her marshes and every available corner of the country). "These facts still further reinfor-- ce the conclusion that Italian agriculture cannot provide a living for many more people than it now does without materially reducing their standards of living, which are already very close to subsistence level. If Italy is to support more people at home, it must be through the development of its industry rather than its agriculture. We shall next examine the possibilities of Italy's development in this direc-- tion. "The matter of absorbing from about 400,000 additional persons into the national economy each year may not seem to us at first to offer much difficulty, but we shall see that it is quite different for Italy from what it would be for us. The absolute size and the density of the population which any country can support at a given standard of living, are dependent upon its resources and its ' op-- portunities, agricultural, industrial, and commercial. Thus England and Wales with a density of population of about 650 per square mile (almost twice that of Italy), are not so crowded as Italy (tho-- ugh in our opinion they are overpopulated now) because of the unequalled -- industrial and commercial opportunities which they enjoyed in the past and still enjoy to a certain extent. In order to understand the situation in Italy we must look rather closely at the agricultural and industrial resources which it possesses. "Italy is also a very rough country, and much of the agriculture is carried on under conditions which we should consider impossible. Indeed, they are quite impossible from the standpoint of making a decent living, as anyone can testify who has visited hill communities in various parts of Italy. Not only must much of the working of soil in the rough lands be done by hand, but often the soil itself is poor and stony. It certainly appears less fertile than much of the soil in our own north--eastern states, which has been abandoned to pasture or is used only for meadow." "By no stretch of the imagination can Italy be regarded as a rich agricultural country. If one were to list the factors limiting Italy's agricultural production, it would take many pages, a good many more pages than to list the favouring factors. It will be necessary to mention a few of the most decisive elements controlling Italy's agriculture. In the first place, the rainfall over the greater part of Italy comes chiefly during the autumn and winter. Such a rainfall limits, very materially, the kind of crops that can be grown and the vields of produce. This is one of the chief reasons, for example, why almost one--half of the land devoted to food crops is sown to wheat each year. The winter rains can be taken advantage of better by wheat than by crops which need more summer warmth and rain for their growth. "Furthermore, since the war the seasonal migration of Italians to neighbouring European countries has also fallen off to some extent. Thus the total number of Italian emigrants is much less now than it was fifteen years ago, and when account is taken of the more largely temporary nature of the movement of Italians today as compared with pre--war times, it means that places must be found at home for a much larger number each year. in Italy in the last forty--five en points only--from about 37--38 he decline in the same period has been En points--from 36--37 to eighteen. This is Wsons why Italy's population problem is now F that of most other European countries. another factor increasing the urgency of Italy's "e present time which is not operative to the same lost of the other countries. The post--war restrictions Fnigration have not borne so heavily upon most European Fies as upon Italy. talians are now practically barred from the United States. What s means to Italy can best be realized if we know that about 90,000 Italians settled here permanently each year before the war (between the years 1902--13), and that the total number of Italian-- born persons in this country was 1,610,000 in 1920. Roughly speak. ing, about 25.0 per cent of the natural increase of Italy was coming to the United States to settle permanently in the pre--war years. Last year*the net Italian immigration was less than one thousand. Since no other outlet has yet been found to take the place of the United States as a destination for emigrants, Italy must for the present care for a considerably larger part of its natural increase at home. It is this strain of accomodating a larger part of a larger increase at home that makes Italy's problem so acute at the present time." AGRICULTURAL POSSIBILITIES i italy. It is, as fast, so that the out the same since the r the last forty--five population problem by ost of the countries of 00 5&1 \ _ "If it were worth while to follow this whole matter further, one could show that both capital and technical skill are lacking in }_taly; and these are almost as important as the basic minerals for the rapid development of machine ;'{ndustry. But we need not pursue this line of thought further; thel;? is no need of piling up evidence of Italy's industrial handicaps. They are too generally known to neegnmore than this brief statement. "It appears, then, that Italy has neither the agricultural nor the industrial resources to care for tjfie present growth of population for more than a few years. If they must remain at home, the pressure of population will shortly become intolerable and we may look for some kind of an explosion. It is certainly not to be ex-- pected that a people of spirit will not choose war when there is hunger at home and when there} is at least a chance that war will lead to the expansion of their resources, "Indeed, from whatever angle one studies the possibilities of Italy's industrial development, it does not seem probable that there can be any growth at all adequaté to care for its present increase of population. ItaNan industry can grow only slowly and can provide only a few new jobs each year; and year by year the provision of even these few will become more difficult. "In all lines of manufacture the situation is much the same. Italy has an abundance of cheap unskilled labour, but the differential in the cost of power and materials is too heavily against her to enable her to manufacture most types of machine--made goods as cheaply as those lands that are blessed with a greater abundance of resour. ees. Under these conditions the process of acquiring markets abroad in the face of competition from other peoples already established must be very slow and will be costly, if, indeed, they can be acquired at all. Besides, even when markets are secured, they are often of doubtful permanence. There is, then, very little reason to believe that Italy can much expand its production of machine--made goods for export, and that its large increase in population can be employed in these new industries....". t _ '"When in addition to the lack of fuel, we find that Italy's resour-- ces in iron are both small and expensive to mine, we can be quite positive that Italy has little chance of developing an iron and steel industry of any consequence. Certainly this industry cannot employ many workers and cannot, therefore, do much to provide places for any appreciable part of its yearly increase in numbers. This also means that Italy can do but little in the development of those derivative fabricating industries in which iron and steel are the materials principally used. It is not surprising, then, to find that even in Switzerland American automobiles are far more numerous than those from Italy. In all such industries Italy labours under an initial handicap in the eost of basic materials which cannot be over-- come by the cheapness of labour. "In developing an electrical industry the situation is practically the same as for iron and steel. Only three hundred and fifty men were employed in the mining of copper in 1926. Italy must import its copper either from this country or from South America and is at a disadvantage in fabricating it as compared with the United States and Germany. "Italy's poverty in all the basic minerals can best be realized if we compare the number of persons engaged in mining in Italy and in some of the other European countries. In 1926 there were only 49,630 persons employed in the mines of Italy, while there were about 780,000 in Germany and 1,140,000 in Great Britain. Nothing could show more clearly that Italy labours under a great handicap in developing its industries. It is difficult for it to supply home markets with metal goods even with tariffs aids; and. of course there is little chance to compete successfully with more favoured lands for world markets in such goods. The ruling abyssinian classes recruit many slaves among the subjected by them. ; "In textiles Italy's position is more favourable than in metals for several reasons: (1) Italy exports considerable quantities of silk, because the production of silk is an industry in which a large amount of hand labour is used and Italy has an abundance of cheap hand labour; (2) the manufacture of textiles does not require a very great amount of power, and consequently expensive power can be partly compensated for by cheap labour; and (3) other Europear countries must also import most of the cotton and wool they use; hence they have less advantage over Italy in this field than in many others. But even in this field Italy cannot hope for a greatly incre-- ased foreign trade. There are too many competitors in the market. Several of the European nations are already better established in the textile trade and if cheap labour is relied upon, Japan, India, and China have even greater abundance of this than Italy. "Italy does, however, possess. considerable water--power in the northern provinces and in the Apennines. It is estimated that about five and five--tenths millions of horse--power can be developed by its streams at ordinary river flow, and about half this amount at extreme low water. At present between one and five--tenths and two millions of horse--power are developed--perhaps about one--third of what can ultimately be made available. This is of great use to Italy, and the manufacturing cities of the north (Turin and Milan) owe an appreciable part of their prosperity to the use of this water-- power. But five to five and five--tenths millions of horse--power are, after all, a comparatively small amount and are insufficient for any large industrial development. It is quite clear, then, that the lack of cheap power which is a necessary consequence of the lack of cheap fuel, is a great handicap to the development of industry in Italy. It will also be decisive in determining the type of industries that can thrive best in the country. "Unfortunately, Italy is even poorer in the essential materials needed by modern industry than in its agricultural resources. Italy possesses in abundance not one of the minerals of prime importance in industry, while it is almost destitute of those of greatest useful-- ness. The entire coal reserves in Italy are less than the coal mined in a single year in this country. Since there is practically no petro-- leum produced in Italy, it is, for all practical purposes, depandent upon imported fuel, not only for much of its industrial power, but also for household uses. 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