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2 The Canadian Statesman, Bowmanville, May 16,1984 Section Two Ottawa Report by Allan Lawrence 9 MP (Durham - Northumberland) There's an old saying that one rose doesn't make a summer. However, if your rose bush is covered with blossoms, it's probably safe to assume that summer is indeed on its way. The same might be said of political opinion polls, over which there has been much head-scratching at Ottawa in recent days. The reason was the Gallup Poll taken in late March, which appeared to show a dramatic switch by 14 percentage points in the standings of the two major political parties. Opinion polls have a great fascination for most politicians. politicians. Some consider polls to be the stock exchange of politics, and to some extent that's true. Each provides a useful snap-shot picture of the situation at a specific point in time. But that single picture is of little real value unless it is related to what went before and what comes after it. Taken together, the results of the political polls from over a period of several months provide a useful reflection of trends in public thinking. They are an indication of whether or not most people favour what the government or the opposition opposition parties have been doing. By the same token, one such poll viewed by itself in isolation isolation can be misleading. All it shows is what a group of one thousand or so people were thinking during a three-day period when they were interviewed interviewed by the pollsters a month previously. Usually they're asked a hypothetical question. Those people, may just have seen or heard something something that influenced their thinking. Or, quite possibly, something may have happened happened to make them change their minds a few minutes after they talked to the pollsters. The intriguing thing about this latest. Gallup Poll is that there were no dramatic political political occurrences around the ST. JOHN AMBULANCE First Aid Family Health Care Cardio Pulmonary Resuscitation Mean safely... well being... Help in an emergency © St. John Ambulance The need never changes time it was taken. One must wonder whether the resignation resignation of Prime Minister Trudeau was a factor - except that his resignation had already already been announced at the time of the previous poll, with no apparent benefit to the, standing of the Liberal party. Certainly, public events affect the polls, but it has to be something very significant. In, 1970, in the two months after the 'October Crisis', support for the Trudeau government leaped by 18 points. Nothing like that happened in late March, and 14 percentage percentage points is a remarkable change, something any political political party would be delighted to achieve -- but doesn't - through all the activity and expense of a general election campaign. One of the most successful elections, so far as polls are concerned, was in 1949, during which the St. Laurent government increased increased its support by eight points. So, few people in Ottawa are prepared for now to accept this poll at its face value. They point out there have been occasions when polls were dead wrong - most notably in the U.S., in 1948, when they predicted Dewey would defeat Harry Truman for president. Among those in each of the political parties who are most knowledgeable about such matters, there has been some skepticism about Gallup Poll results for the past several months. Certainly, we Progressive Progressive Conservatives could not seriously believe we had the support of 62 percent of Canadians as the poll showed last September - a 12 point jump from August. And in December, when Gallup showed the P.C.'s with a 23 point lead over the Liberals, strategists for both parties, who had been conducting conducting their own private polls, agreed that the real difference was more likely about eight or nine points. There have been suggestions suggestions that the Gallup polling system may no longer be as accurate as claimed, that the thousand or so Canadians interviewed each month are not selected in a way that truly represents national opinion. It's probably too soon to say. Of one thing you may be certain: all federal politicians will be watching for the results of Gallup's next political political poll, taken in April, and other polls which are now under way. The results should show whether the March results were some sort of aberration, or whether in fact our national politics are becoming extremely extremely volatile. ■ i :.i i . ASSORTED FLAVORS. REALEMON OR WYLERS, FLAVORED, Drink Mix Crystals POLY BAO OF 3x12 a OR 3x71 g EN VS. .99 KRAFT, Mayonnaise 500 ml JAR 1.59 6EEFOOETTLBEEFARONI, RAVIOLI OR SPAGHETTI A MEATBALLS Chef Boyardee Pastas oz.TiN .49 ASSORTED VARIETIES, Partner ECTffil Dog Food liluHi TOO g TIN .49 ASSORTED VARIETIES, DRY A La Cat Mjk Cat Food i|f 158 .99 WITH OR WITHOUT OARLIC OR POLSKI OGORKI, Blck's Dill Pickles 1 L JAR 1.59 ORANGE PEKOE, Tetley Tea Bags PKO. OF 144 3.69 12 INCH WIDTH, ALCAN, 25 FOOT .99 Aluminum Foil ROLL BOX NABISCO, Shredded Wheat 600 g BOX 1.69 BONUS PACK Kerr's Candles 350 g TO 400 g PKG. .99 CHRISTIE BISCUITS. Arrowroot, Chips Ahoy or Coffee Breaks "MS" 1.89 CHRISTIE, SALTED OR PLAIN, U Triscult pkoS 1 .49 CHRISTIE, SALTED OR PLAIN, U Premium Crackers pkq 9 1 .29 ASSORTED VARIETIES, LADY PATRICIA, Shampoo or 4somL u Conditioner p btl t 1 .29 PRODUCT OF U.S.A., CANADA NO. 1 GRADE, 1?*our Z2reo. Aim i Toothpaste nm m E L .99 Cabbage EA. 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